PS 10+1 late

[pooh74]

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but if you are winning with no SD 90% it's hugely profitable.

very rough estimate:

assume 900 in antes, then 5700 in pot including your complete.

if you get called, say you're 33% to win. you push for 26k, the first 5700 is at even money, for the last 20k you lose 33% equity, for -6.5k.

completing gives you ~1/3 equity in a 5700 pot, or about 2k, so the -6.5k should include the missed opportunity to complete, so pushing and getting called is -8.5k.

8.5k ~= 1.5 times 5.7k that you win, so you need to win the pot uncontested 60% of your pushes.

that's very rough and could have major errors as well, but i'm trying to practice estimating it quickly.

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If those numbers are correct, I think it makes this a decent play. (players at this stage of these things get very tight...raising and folding to reraises often-and incorrectly most likely)