Question from Harrington's Book re: Breaking Down Hand Possibilities

[Joeflex]

Harrington goes into his a very detailed hand analysis beginning on P. 130. In this hand, Hero has AA and is heads-up and the flop comes 952(r) and leads and is raised all-in.

We must come up with Opponent's possible hands. Harrington says that this wager is either a bluff, or 1) Pocket Pair lower than A's (KK-TT), 2) or a set of 9's or 5's. Harrington says this is the toughest decision in poker.

Harrington says that the pair is 4 times more likely than the set (and explains the math which I'm not questioning) and also says that based on the way this hand was played, a pair is more likely.

Here's where I'm thrown way off. He then comes up with 50% pair/40% set/(10% bluff). Not sure why this is the case based on that the pair is 4x more likely mathematically and more likely based on the play, but he says these percentages are taking this into account.

Any thoughts here? This is intimidating stuff.

Joeflex

[Lucky]

with 100 bb stacks and the 952r board, I would think a solid players all-in would be a set more than 40%. I'm certainly folding more than 40%.

I'm assuming it was full ring/6max and it went to flop heads up.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
with 100 bb stacks and the 952r board, I would think a solid players all-in would be a set more than 40%. I'm certainly folding more than 40%.

I'm assuming it was full ring/6max and it went to flop heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a tournament game 10-handed IIRC, and it went to the flop HU.

Rob

[Finwe]

The 4X number comes solely from the probability of him having been dealt those hands barring any other information. We do have more information though, our opponent raised us all in. This swings the probability of him having a set higher. This example is from a tournament...

Fin

I know of the hand in question.

That hand was played incorrectly in a couple of places.

1st mistake was that the pre-flop raise ($1200) was too big for the chip stack at the time ($20,000) Hero was UTG and would have been better off raising $600 here - IMO. Blinds $150/$300 antes $25. Even with more chips it would be worthwhile to downplay the strength of the hand. Big raises UTG raises get attention. Would this player ever make this kind of raise with another hand? I like giving another pocket pair (which BTW are the very hands that end up tormenting the decision later) the idea that an iso re-raise would be a good idea. A min-raise would be perfect. Another problem with raising $1200 is that the pot$ with just 1 caller might get too big to play comfortably later on. I might want to check raise the flop for example. How big will the pot be on the turn? On the river? If Hero had less chips, or more chips the pre-flop raise is ok - here it just bites.

2nd mistake was on the flop. Hero should have played the flop with the idea of check-raising. No disrespect to Dan, as he is trying to show an idea or way of thinking here,(= should I make the call, and how can I figure it out?), but a good player is simply not going to lead out and bet AA in this situation. Even 66 should check raise, so why bet AA?

Anyway - Dan is just giving % based on gut feel.
He is actually being quite generous about the breakdown -since %'s based on logic would indicate that the most likely explanation of the all-in reraise is that your opp thinks you have AK or KQs and are totally full of it! It is more likely that trips would just call here hoping you have an overpair or AK. Why would trips reraise all-in? There is nothing in this flop to be afraid of, and nothing to be gained by reraising.

But I could see an overpair doing this - KK,QQ,JJ,TT , but trips is not so likely.

I think a more realistic breakdown is maybe 70%pair/10%trips/20%bluff.

But if YOU have a hand to play in a situation like this - YOU will have to decide the correct play based on "YOUR" gut feel anyway. What good is the math if the #'s (based on instinct) going in are no good?

So don't worry about it - the more you play the better you will get.

K.I.S.S. - the best hand will win.

[MTBlue]

WTF