#11
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Re: Chip suicide
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yes, you could have runner runner hearts. This is not standard IMO, and is bad poker, this is a clear spot where you should wait for the turn where your equity edge is much higher to get your money in. [/ QUOTE ] Again, there's absolutely no way I'm drawing dead. If he holds A7 / AT with no heart (like he is), then most turns are a scare card for him, as it will likely be > a 7, but lower than an ace. I think your thought process here is incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] I meant you could have runner runner OUTS, not hearts. As for my thought process, why is it correct. If villain is 50% to win on flop, and you put him in, he is not making a mistake to call, if villain is 30% to win on turn (these numbers are close but not exact), and you donkbet all in on a heartless turn, villain would be making a mistake to call. We gain when our opponent makes a mistake, and lose when doesnt. How is my logic wrong? [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think villian is calling a lead for a pot-sized all-in bet on the turn if the turn bricks? |
#12
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Re: Chip suicide
If he doesnt then we win the pot, which is good.
My main point, which you have yet to address, is that if villain has A10 or A7 with a heart, than pushing the flop is bad since villain will not be making a mistake and we profit from villain's mistakes. If villain isnt making a mistake, then we arent gaining EV. If villain has A7 or A10 without a heart I dont see the difference between him calling an all in on the flop and him calling an all in on the turn, but if he will call a flop push and fold to a turn push then that impacts my analysis, but as I said earlier, I do not believe this is the case. Please address my point about the EV merits of a flop push. |
#13
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Re: Chip suicide
[ QUOTE ]
If he doesnt then we win the pot, which is good. My main point, which you have yet to address, is that if villain has A10 or A7 with a heart, than pushing the flop is bad since villain will not be making a mistake and we profit from villain's mistakes. If villain isnt making a mistake, then we arent gaining EV. If villain has A7 or A10 without a heart I dont see the difference between him calling an all in on the flop and him calling an all in on the turn, but if he will call a flop push and fold to a turn push then that impacts my analysis, but as I said earlier, I do not believe this is the case. Please address my point about the EV merits of a flop push. [/ QUOTE ] Sure, it's +EV because we have fold equity. |
#14
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Re: Chip suicide
Uh, and to state the obvious, he doesn't have AT/A7 with the heart every time. Just sucks when he happens to have this type of hand. So push.
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