limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

[Buzz]

Knoll - Thanks. I appreciate your views too.

Is Hero stuck calling with top set on the river or not? In my humble opinion, it depends on a whole bunch of things, but in general, I’m very inclined to call a single bet on the river when I have top set.

Assuming Hero does plan to call on the river when he does not improve top set and when a straight becomes possible, and considering bluff pick-offs, in the example hand/board, Hero gains by initiating fresh money into the pot on the third betting round. But using Chaos’s values of 3/44 and 3/44, which seem not unreasonable, Hero does not gain very much by betting or raising with top set (plus the nut flush draw) on the turn.
{my math: 4*11/44 + 1*8/44 - 2*25/44 = (44+8-50)/44 = +2/44}.

In a pre-flop-loose game of limit-Omaha-8, I think you view top set as a drawing hand. (This is obviously a very different situation from Texas hold 'em). An important difference between top set failing to improve and a flush or straight draw failing to improve in a limit Omaha-8 game is that you’re not tempted to call a bet on the fourth betting round with only a four-flush or a four-straight. But with top set, well... you still have top set, which often wins even when the river enables a straight or flush. (Top set is going to beat anything worse than a straight).

But without also the nut flush draw or something equally compelling, my current thinking is Hero generally probably does better just limping with top set on the turn. And if that’s true of top set, I think it’s even truer of any other high draw.

A made straight or better is different. But with just a draw for high, even if your draw is the top set, depending on the exact situation, I think you probably do better by playing passively on the third betting round.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Buzz - I do agree top set as a finished hand is not the worst in this situation. I would probably call off about 1/3 overall, but it does depend on position and how many were in before me naturally. If heads-up, I'd call probably 2/3 to 3/4 of the time. The pot size usually determines my decision. Then I account for the player betting. As you know, usually in O8 no one bets into the raiser or led out on the river unless they have it. Just standard practice for low or middle limit games.
In regard to not having the flush draw to go with it: that's a weak position and a crying call usually. I hate top set or two pair with that board. Only drawing for posible half, it's just awful against 2 or more opponents.
What I was mostly concerned with in regards to this hand was Hero's position. I feel since he was the preflop raiser and driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas. There's a good chance one will fold and possibly two (though doubtfully). Nevertheless, if he doesn't get any new money in before the river and hits, I think it's highly doubtful he'll get paid off. I'm not sure what my decision would be if I was Hero in every situation such as this. But it seems to me betting and being aggresive in this particular situation is the best play. Even if the numbers contradict slightly. The edge seems to be about 3.5 to 1 against, and you're only getting 3 to 1 one on 4th. But I have bet on horses giving only 5/8 so what the hell. Just make take on it...lol
Thank you again!
Knoll

[Buzz]

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What I was mostly concerned with in regards to this hand was Hero's position. I feel since he was the preflop raiser and driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas.

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Knoll - Here’s a quote from the opening post of this thread.

“Four of Hero’s opponents see the flop for one small bet each. SB bets the flop, BB calls, and Hero raises.”

As you can see, Hero did not raise before the flop. Rather, Hero raised on the flop. However, it’s a moot point because Hero was “driving the bus” before the turn.

Hero’s raise on the second betting round seems absolutely correct to me. With two cards yet to come, Hero figures to make a decent full house or the nut flush or a nut straight more often than not.

But then, as happens more often than not when things look very rosy immediately after the flop, the turn is ugly (but not an absolute disaster).

Now what?

You wrote:
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I feel since he was .... driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas. ..... if he doesn't get any new money in before the river and hits, I think it's highly doubtful he'll get paid off.

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I agree Hero is more likely to collect when he hits on the river if the pot is bigger. And that seems a good reason to be aggressive.

Another good reason to be aggressive was suggested by Chaos: [ QUOTE ]
I think one of the keys to playing the turn is to be aggressive with all of your good hands. If you bet your wrap straight draws strongly in this same spot, it will be harder for your opponents to put you on a specific hand. They will not know whether you have a made hand like a set or two pair, or are betting on the come with a straight or a flush draw.

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What to do obviously will always depend on your opponents and the exact situation. And I like mixing it up a bit. But how about some general guidelines for this very common situation?

I like the reasoning for aggressive play.

Still ..... if you take away the nut flush draw leaving Hero with just top two pair (four scoop outs), I don’t like betting on the third betting round. <font color="white">_</font>I’m not sure I’m even calling with only four scoop outs. Raising seems overly aggressive (maniacal). Similarly, I also don’t like betting on the third betting round if all Hero had here was the nut flush draw (four scoop outs plus five half-pot outs). <font color="white">_</font>However, I wouldn’t characterize raising with the nut flush draw as maniacal.

The number of outs Hero has is obviously a factor. In terms of general guidelines, I’m leaning toward wanting a minimum of ten scoop outs (or the equivalent) to bet a draw on the turn when low, a straight, or a flush is not yet possible. Depends on the number of opponents and how they play, of course.

I don’t think initiating fresh money into the pot depends much on the size of the pot already. However, calling or not does depend very much on the size of the pot.

In the opening post hand/flop/turn, Hero has 8 scoop outs plus 5 half pot outs. I’d say that was good enough to bet, even though Hero can’t like the 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn much. I think that’s about equivalent to top set (would be ten scoop outs here). A wrap-around straight draw with at least ten scoop equivalent outs works for me too, as do various straight/flush straight/boat, flush/boat combinations.

What if low, a straight, or a flush is already possible? Then I think Hero backs off betting draws, including top set (depending on how many opponents he's facing and how they play of course).

That’s admittedly a somewhat conservative approach.

Buzz

I apologize for the misread regarding the preflop raise. I thought he had. Nevertheless, I agree with yours and Chaos's view also with the play of this hand from the flop forward. No! The turn is not a good card for Hero's hand, but I feel betting will work out best overall more times than not with these conditions. I just have the approach that giving free rides in O8 is one of the worst things you can do. The game is so multi-dimensional that nearly every river card besides a pair will make a flush or straight. It is extremely rare when a set is the best possible hand. Therefore, if you can get rid of any players with a bet, take the chance everytime. I have a fairly strong image at the table and can usually flush 1 or 2 players out each betting round. I pick my spots naturally. I did remark however in my last post, that without the flush draw I really don't like the hand much anymore.

*If the low, a straight, or a flush is already possible then you have to back off. It's a big dog and a crying call most of the time against a field of 3 opponents. I don't feel it conservative, just wise Buzz.

JMO - Knoll

[Buzz]

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giving free rides in O8 is one of the worst things you can do. The game is so multi-dimensional that nearly every river card besides a pair will make a flush or straight. It is extremely rare when a set is the best possible hand. Therefore, if you can get rid of any players with a bet, take the chance everytime.

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Knoll - You make a compelling argument for betting the turn. Thank you.

Buzz

You're Welcome Buzz - I have been playing O8 for about 15 years and have seen pretty much everything the game has. I've only been "truely" analyzing the game for the past 3 years I'd say, it took me about 5 years to really learn it...lol
I appreciate all your views and arguements, sometimes it's hard to see the finer aspects of the game. I'd like to talk more with you if you have the time. Send me a private message on here if you care, I'd like it.

Thanks Again
Knoll