Pop quiz

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll deal with the river when I get to it. Besides, if my opponent is bluffing, he might not fire again on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to guess at this. You've been told that this hypothetical opponent will follow through on a bluff just often enough that you have to call the river unimproved.

[mack848]

I'll take a stab . . .

If you initially assume you have 5 outs to win and the pot is offering about 7:1, you can call (planning to fold UI) if you think the opponent will call a bet the river when you hit.

If you decide to call down UI, you are putting in 2BB to win 8 - only 4:1. This means that you would need to be leading (and hold up), or hit one of your outs, 20% of the time in order to call profitably. You will hit an out around 10% of the time, so you have to decide whether your opponent is bluffing ~10% of the time in order to call him down.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the raise button?
Obvious raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven;t given you any information about how this hypothetical player will handle a raise, except to not offer that as an option. You might take this as an implicit statement that raising is bad, as in, this player will 3-bet everything he bets.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

Hi Mack,

You're on the right track, but there's no guesswork involved. I've given you enough information to get the right answer. What is it?

-Eric

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
can i raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see this listed as an option? Assume this player 3-bets everything he bets on the turn.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case you call down for tilt equity.
If you are beat, you can quietly muck, but if you win, you get to show the whole table you called down with bottom pair.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll deal with the river when I get to it. Besides, if my opponent is bluffing, he might not fire again on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to guess at this. You've been told that this hypothetical opponent will follow through on a bluff just often enough that you have to call the river unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

All right then. One problem we do have is that on those occasions where our opponent is bluffing on the river when we catch, this cuts into the implied odds we were counting on.

And we're just barely getting the odds on both streets. So if it's the implied odds that let us call the turn, I suppose this becomes a marginal fold on the turn.

I'm not confident that's the reasoning you're looking for, though.

[Nytecaster]

I said call the turn with the intent of calling the river. If you have enough equity to call a turn and make two pair you certainly have enough to justify calling the potential bluff on the river when you don't improve.

EDIT: Usually if you call the turn you should plan on calling the river, especially headsup in a pot big enough to warrant it.

[Bodhi]

Elindauer: "Do you see why?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I voted but your description of the scenario does include some vague points. What is "an outside chance?" Is it 5%? 10%? We can speculate all we want or try to get philosophical about some definitions, but it would be much better if you had actually provided a concrete example for the question.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Elindauer: "Do you see why?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I voted but your description of the scenario does include some vague points. What is "an outside chance?" Is it 5%? 10%? We can speculate all we want or try to get philosophical about some definitions, but it would be much better if you had actually provided a concrete example for the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Bodhi,

I haven't given you an exact percentage you are ahead, but I have told you that you plan to call the river. I think it's safe to assume that you will not feel obligated to make a -EV river call, and that's all the information you need. If you call the turn, there will be enough money in the pot, and he will follow through on the river often enough that you will have to make the crying call on the river too.

Good luck.
Eric

[Nick Royale]

I haven't read all responses but I think the majority is overthinking this situation. Whats's given is that we can make a profitable call on the turn and a profitable call on the river. Why not call?

If calling the turn and folding the river is barely profitable, then calling the turn and being able to make one more profitable call on the river has to be more profitable.