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#1
07-05-2005, 05:03 AM
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River decision with overpair.
party 15/30.
I raise QQ (no diamond) from MP and only the BB calls. I have been doing a lot of raising in my first orbit at the table, and by chance haven't shown anything but a total bluff. I may be viewed as somewhat laggy by the unawares. BB is loose and fairly aggressive postflop according to his stats. I've never seen him play myself. Flop: 88T, two diamonds. BB check-raises me. I 3-bet. He caps. I call. Turn: 6d. He bets, I call. River: Th. He bets. I ... 
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#2
07-05-2005, 05:22 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
You have to call (and show if you lose) here with 9.333 to 1 pot odds and hope he has a smaller pocket pair, overcards with one diamond (admittedly not likely), or something like J9. But just as importantly, you get to look him up and see whether he was capping with a big hand like overpair/trips, top pair, or a straight/flush draw, especially since you just got to the table. Plus, I've found that it is generally a bad idea to have a "fold-on-the-river" image, it's generally more profitable to have people call you down on your legitimate hands then to call them down and hope they're bluffing. If they know you'll call them down with a legitimate hand, the observant ones won't try to bluff you on the river as much, allowing you to check behind them, or fold if they bet, knowing that it's likely they have a real hand.
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#3
07-05-2005, 05:39 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
[ QUOTE ]
If they know you'll call them down with a legitimate hand, the observant ones won't try to bluff you on the river as much, allowing you to check behind them, or fold if they bet, knowing that it's likely they have a real hand. [/ QUOTE ] won't the observant ones then notice that I fold the river against them, thus defeating whatever metagame edge I gained by calling here? I'm not sure I see the point of calling in a spot I think is losing, just so I can then fold in a spot I think is losing at some time in the future. Will my opponents really be able to take advantage of their newfound image of me should I fold here? They don't know I don't have, for example, AK with the Ad. They'll have to cap the flop, then have the worst two cards in the deck come off, only to get the opportunity to attempt their river bluff... -Eric
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#4
07-05-2005, 05:41 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
There's still some hands you beat here against an aggro player. With such a drawsy board, not only may he be overplaying a draw, but he may be putting you on a semibluff and voraciously defending against it with something like 99, JJ or lower. With your LAG image, I like a call.
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#5
07-05-2005, 06:05 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
Clear to call, I think. Chances of winning this hand against a laggish 15 player are no worse than 9/1 and probably more like 6or7/1. And you get some info. The metagame advantage of being seen to be immoveable on river is much exaggerated, though, imo.
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#6
07-05-2005, 06:12 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
[ QUOTE ]
Clear to call, I think. Chances of winning this hand against a laggish 15 player are no worse than 9/1 and probably more like 6or7/1. And you get some info. The metagame advantage of being seen to be immoveable on river is much exaggerated, though, imo. [/ QUOTE ] You may be right, but I'm skeptical. The game does play aggressively, no doubt. But do you really see players capping draws THAT ARE NOT FLUSH DRAWS, out of position, very often? 10% of all out of position caps on this board are non-flush draw, no pair hands? That feels a bit high to me. Good luck. Eric
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#7
07-05-2005, 06:49 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
I may not have attached enough weight to the river bet. As well as non-flush draws and bluffs I was treating a pocket pair up to 99 as possible (JJ wd presumably 3bet PF). Would he valuebet these? I think some would Vbet the medium pockets. If the river bet leaves open his holding a pocket pr (and I think it does), then I still think it's a call. Perhaps not as clear as I first thought.
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#8
07-05-2005, 07:41 AM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
Not raising the turn here is a big mistake. There is still a likely chance of AT 9J while i think that chance is less than 50% by raising the turn you get away from you hand at the same price yet when he calls you get to put in an extremely safe +EV value bet on the river.
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#10
07-05-2005, 10:05 PM
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Re: River decision with overpair.
[ QUOTE ]
Not raising the turn here is a big mistake. There is still a likely chance of AT 9J ... [/ QUOTE ] You make some interesting points, but I think you are overstating the odds that he a) is aggressive enough to cap a draw out of position which does not include a flush draw, and b) is not aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn enough that raising is wrong. That's a fine line. Personally, I don't see many players capping hands on draws out of position unless the draw is so big that the cap is made for value. Even then, it's not all that common, and without a read that this guy will do so, I think it's best to assume he will not by default. When the diamond hits the turn, I feel I've gone almost into crying call mode. When the ten hits the river, I can't beat any typical holding. I mucked, but felt awkward about folding an overpair for 1 bet in a pretty good pot.
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