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  #1  
Old 12-02-2005, 05:41 PM
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Default 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

PokerStars Game #3218075461: Hold'em Limit ($30/$60) - 2005/12/02 -
05:33:46 (ET)
Table 'lala' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: Villian1 ($2491 in chips)
Seat 3: Villian2 ($841.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($1283.50 in chips)
Seat 8: lala ($600 in chips)
Seat 9: lala ($638 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind $15
lala: posts big blind $30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Td Kd]
Villain1: raises $30 to $60
unimportant: folds
Villian2: calls $60
Hero: calls $45
llala: calls $30
*** FLOP *** [Kc Jd Qc]
Hero: bets $30
lala: folds
Villain1: raises $30 to $60
Villain2: folds
Hero: calls $30
*** TURN *** [Kc Jd Qc] [8d]
Hero: checks
Villain1: bets $60
Hero: raises $60 to $120
Villain1: raises $60 to $180
Hero: calls $60
*** RIVER *** [Kc Jd Qc 8d] [Qh]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets $60
Hero: calls $60

Okay. The game is very soft right now, very aggressive preflop and postflop but a lot of players are making very loose call downs. When villain raised and villain2 called, I knew BB was gonna call as they've called their blind everytime so far. Figured K10d in this soft game where people are paying off was worth a flop even outa position(possibly mistake one). I lead the flop because I very well may have the best hand and have the open-ended to boot. When I get raised, I call planning to call down UI. On the turn when I pick up the flush draw, I do a double take and think the player may very well be on a hand like 10j, 10q, AK, AQ, maybe AJ. I figure with a turn check/raise I may move him off AK and get value out of the other hands that I'm ahead. I have such a strong redraw with 16ish clean outs that I don't mind putting an extra bet in on the turn if I have a chance to fold off AK because if called on the turn I'll get the bet back on the river the times I hit. Once I get 3-bet on the turn I know I'm behind and need help but decide to pay off river anwyays to see his hand(this was obvious fold here though, I realize that). Critique away.
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  #2  
Old 12-02-2005, 06:05 PM
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

First off I think this is a great hand to post. It looks to me like there are many close decisoins on all streets and I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks but here's my take, right or wrong.

Preflop--loose call that puts you in tough spots throughout the hand even though it is a bit shorthanded and premium hands are of slightly less concern plus you are getting good pot odds.

Flop--Check-call may be more prudent at this time. You have to respect the PFR and expect his raise to thin the field of middle pair type hands. You'd rather leave them in because you are drawing even though you have top pair. I can see betting the flop out as an option as well

Turn--If your aim is to push a player off AK then you should have either check-raised the flop or 3 bet when he raised it on the flop. That being said, there is no way of you knowing that you hand would improve so much on the turn. I don't hate the check-raise but I have a hard time seeing AK fold still, although it is not all that remote of a scenario.

River--Pot is huge but you are beat. For him to reraise the turn check-raise requires much more than AK. Looks more like AT than anything given his turn play but he could also easily have filled here. A fold is best but you'd better be awfully sure he's not running some kind of play on you--I for one believe him--you're beat and can save a bet.
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Old 12-02-2005, 09:34 PM
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

bump
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  #4  
Old 12-02-2005, 10:15 PM
I.Rowboat I.Rowboat is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

I agree with Schmitty's post that the decisions on the flop and turn appear to be close (river seems like an obvious fold, but we'll get to that.

PF: I hate playing drawing hands out of position in a raised pot, especially middling Broadway cards, which is what you have. You know that your call is going to make a bigger pot, but at this point I don't think you have enough other callers to call a raise from the SB -- I would like one more caller. You also don't state the position of the Villian1, which makes a difference. I think you can fold this...but you state the game is soft, so based on that read, I don't hate your call. But if I were in the hand, I wouldn't really like my hand unless I flopped two pair...

Flop: An interesting flop that hits just about every quality hand Villian1 would have opened with. Why are you leading??? I would check to the PF raiser and call. Your bet (and the expected raise from Villian1) will almost certainly eliminate Villian2, but I would prefer to check/call because I know I am drawing and I would prefer to keep other players in and (hopefully) see the turn on the cheap.

Turn: OK, picked up another leg of your BDFD, so you now have 8 clean outs for the str8 and 9 outs for second nut flush (with an obvious dupe of two of those flush/str8 outs), for 15 outs to improve to a complete hand that will probably be good. Plus you have TP with no kicker, which means you *may* have three more outs, although I sort of doubt it. Now might be a good time to C/R. Unless your table image is total rock, AK is *never* laying down in this spot...but you have many outs and a raise ain't so bad, and it puts Villian1 on notice that you have a hand. Of course, his three bet is bad news, but it creates what i think is the most interesting decision in the hand: do you cap when it gets back to you? If you simply call, I think you have to check/fold the river UI, as you are almost certainly beat. This would be the standard line, and against most opponents most of the time, it is the correct one. But some percentage of the time, I think you need to play some poker and cap here. If you improve, you will definitely get paid off on the river, and you seem to be drawing live to almost 1/3 of the deck, so capping is very attractive, as it also give you momentum going to the river.

River: Well...that sucks. As youplayed the hand, I think this is a check/fold card. Even with the C/R I advocated on the turn, this is an awful card unless your opponent puts you on exactly KQ or better. I don't think a bet on the river will get an AK or better to fold, and I don't think the Villian holds less than AK. If you bet out, he will fold AJc (which is the only weaker hand that you beat that allows him to 3 bet the turn), but he's calling with AK and raising with everything else. The pot has now grown very, very large and I don't think he folds a hand stronger than yours to a river bet a large enough percentage of the time to make it profitable on its own. Unless he's the sort of reckless player that will spew chips the whole way with something like 66 or A8c, I think this is an easy fold.
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  #5  
Old 12-02-2005, 10:18 PM
ArturiusX ArturiusX is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

I check-call the flop, and see what the turn brings. I dont really want to bet here, being raised sucks and the turn card can make or break our hand.
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  #6  
Old 12-02-2005, 10:52 PM
shemp shemp is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

I think preflop is fine. I like the flop bet because putting in two flop bets doesn't necessarily suck so much, and it will likely put pressure on some would be hangers on -- contrast that with a check-raise, when 3 bets go in you are not happy. Check-calling is an option. I don't think people fold AK on the turn here at all, let alone in amped up short handed games, so your thinking there is off. But the turn check-raise seems fine given the likelihood you are ahead and the chance you'll improve, and if you are in a bit of a wild game, giving a little action is a good thing -- also, a free card isn't horrible if you are ahead. I confess, I call the river ever-hopeful that a worse hand+flush draw got jiggy on the turn or that KJ got counterfeited.
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  #7  
Old 12-03-2005, 04:46 AM
tpir90036 tpir90036 is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

Turn might be a little much without a better read... not a big deal though since you have muchos outos. thinking you will fold out AK is "LOL".
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  #8  
Old 12-03-2005, 06:19 AM
goofball goofball is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

Getting 13:1 on the river bet I think you're good much less than 5% of the time. Cna you think of a single hand a reasonable villian plays this way that you're ahead of? He might have some nutterbutter nut flush draw, but that's all I can think of and it doesn't seem likely. One pair just isn't going to cut it here.
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  #9  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:11 AM
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

Most of the time, I wouldn't call a raise with KTs unless I was in the BB or the game has been really loose. There's no way you'd push him off AK, because combined with the chances you're semi-bluffing or raising with a weaker hand than his and the chance he picks up his gutshot straight, he'll call one more bet. (He's calling $60 for about a $600 pot). You know you're way behind on the turn re-raise. He has either AT, KQ, or possibly KJ (although less likely). The river diminishes the chance he has KQ, but it's still a candidate. AT is probably what he has though. Check/fold, unless he's a maniac, then you can call and hope the odds are less than 13-1 that he's bluffing (doubtful otherwise).
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  #10  
Old 12-03-2005, 01:31 PM
MattiasL MattiasL is offline
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Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

Something wrong with the hand history?
From the table numbers, it seems Villain1 is CO, Villain2 Button. But the preflop action goes:
[ QUOTE ]

Villain1: raises $30 to $60
unimportant: folds
Villian2: calls $60


[/ QUOTE ]

Was this a CO raise + button coldcall?

If it was (and he has a larger range) I like the turn raise if it makes you able to fold the river after getting threebet. If you can not fold the river, just call down.

The problem is that the raise folds almost no hand on that board.
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