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#1
10-04-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK. 
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#2
10-04-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK. [/ QUOTE ] Are you saying villain 3 bet the flop and leads the turn with a big A here or what?
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#3
10-04-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think a guy with these stats 3 bets 55 or 44. So we're only really bad against 88, TT, and AA. AA, TT, 88 -- 12 combos (4 outs) 99, JJ, QQ, KK -- 24 combos (7 outs) 12 * 4 = 48 24 * 7 = 168 48 + 168 = 216 216 / (12 + 24) = 6 outs We have on average close to 6 outs on the turn -- even more if SB might be going a little nuts with AK or AQ or something. Plus when we are behind a set, we usually collect 2 bets on the river when we hit. Even if you only get 1 bet on average against AA, the turn call has to be correct. Folding the turn is an error.
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#4
10-04-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a guy with these stats 3 bets 55 or 44. So we're only really bad against 88, TT, and AA. AA, TT, 88 -- 12 combos (4 outs) 99, JJ, QQ, KK -- 24 combos (7 outs) 12 * 4 = 48 24 * 7 = 168 48 + 168 = 216 216 / (12 + 24) = 6 outs We have on average close to 6 outs on the turn -- even more if SB might be going a little nuts with AK or AQ or something. Plus when we are behind a set, we usually collect 2 bets on the river when we hit. Even if you only get 1 bet on average against AA, the turn call has to be correct. Folding the turn is an error. [/ QUOTE ] Very nice. I can't remember seeing this technique to average outs before, maybe I did but it just didn't register...
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