can you call this?

[Che]

Thanks to all who responded!

I thought this was an interesting hand for several reasons (which is why I didn't let the thread die at "fold that trash" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), but first:

As I already revealed, I was UTG+1. I called and the villain showed KT. Turn and river were blanks. MHIG.

Of course, the fact that I happened to be ahead this time doesn't mean it was a good call. If the villain's range of hands was AA/KK/22/K2/AK/KQ/KJ/KT for making this move, then lucking into the bottom of the range doesn't make the play "correct."

BTW I intentionally did not give my read on the LAG big stack because I wanted to give you guys the opportunity to say things like: "I fold except against a near-maniacal LAG" or "I fold quickly except against maniacs and I fold slowly against maniacs."

My take is that against most players (known or unknown), this is a fold. Against LAG big stacks, it can be a call.

As it turns out, the guy had accumulated his 3000 chips through very LAG play with hands that were far from premium. Not sure if he was paying attention to me or not, but if he was he would have noticed that I had only played two pots past the flop so far (2+ levels into the tourney) with one win in the two tries.

Given that most players would expect someone in EP to slowplay flopped trips, he probably read my bet (correctly) for a K. If he had noticed that I was capable of folding, putting me to the test for my whole stack was a good play IMHO.

But...what about the four players in between us? That's where his raise (and thus my call) gets dicey. I think pocket pairs JJ-33 are unlikely since even a maniac would know that the possibility of a call was pretty high with four players and a bettor still to act.

With five opponents and two 2's showing, there was a 38.4% chance that someone had a 2 assuming random card distribution. Then again, cards are dealt randomly, but players generally do not play random hands outside of the blinds. So the chance of a 2 being out there was probably much less.

As for better K's, with two showing (one on board, one in hand) the likelihood of someone having a K (at random) was also 38.4%, but this also overestimates the possibility since many of those K's would raise (AK, KK, maybe KQ since he is a LAG).

Then again, my impression is that very few players actually know the numbers so he probably did not know how likely his opponents were to have a 2 or a K. Anyway...

If anyone in between us had called, I would have been gone. For that matter, if either of the blinds had bet out, I would have been gone.

But, I put the villain on KQ/KJ/KT or K9s as his most likely holdings. Pocket pairs JJ-33 were also possible (AA-QQ would have raised preflop, 22 would just call). A2s and K2s were also possible, but I would have expected a call from either. (He was a LAG, but didn't appear to be a smart LAG.)

I haven't run that range in Pokerstove, but I'm confident that I was better than 50/50 against it. Getting 1.6:1, I thought it was a call.

Even so, I probably still fold that most of the time in order to "wait for a better opp," but I was very tired and really wasn't in the mood to get pushed around so I called and now we have this great thread! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

All in all, I think limping from EP with KJo is actually the worst play I made during the hand. I rarely do that, but 4 or more players seeing the flop at this table was not uncommon. A recent hand had a showdown for a big pot on a Qxxxx board and Q9o won!

If I'm not willing to loosen my postflop standards, I shouldn't loosen my preflop standards and play the KJo in the first place. I'm actually surprised more people didn't comment about the preflop limp.

Enough rambling. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Any more thoughts?

Later,
Che