Interesting hand/river decision

[1337 skills]

As far as reads go UTG+1 in this hand is a table coach who has been complaining about getting rivered too much but has been making the crying call everytime and is possibly steaming. CO just sat down.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero ???

We'll cut the action here for discussion's sake. Call or raise?

I probably would have raised the turn...
if he still insists on re-raising then i would slow down
if not then im raising the river...

[hyp]

[thesharpie]

Nice avatar.

Let's say his range is AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], AQo, KQs, AA, KK, QQ. You could give him a wider range if you knew he was on tilt, but I don't think we should just because he possibly could be.

We're ahead of:

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 way
AQo - 2 ways (half it due to chopping)
KQs - 2 ways
KK - 6 ways

(9 total)

We're behind:
AA - 3 ways
QQ - 3 ways

(6 total)

If we know he'll play KQo and KK like this, and will payoff a raise, and CO will also it looks like a raise.

[1337 skills]

He can only have AA one way. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are accounted for.

Thanks for the avatar complement.

[thesharpie]

Doh! Easy raise then..

[pryor15]

i'm not sold on the flop cap, but having done that, you have to raise the river as you've either a) outdrawn his KK, b) his flush draw failed to come in, or c) he just spiked his AK

i guess it's possible he has QQ, 99, or AA, so you might want to think twice before capping the river.

the thing is, if your flop cap is correct, what has changed in the hand that would make a river raise incorrect? K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes some sense if he's steaming, maybe TT or JTs, but i don't see too many hands where you led on the flop but trail at the end.

sorry if i'm rambling...it's late.

[@bsolute_luck]

why did you decide to cap the flop after he capped preflop?

wouldn't this river be a raise and fold to a 3-bet situation?
ps: what about CO? is he just a doof?

[thesharpie]

Hey bro.

Folding to a 3 bet would be bad. Even if he only 3 bets AA/QQ/AQs, he has us crushed 2 ways, and we chop 1 ways. If you include AQo or even AK in his range it's even worse.

I messed up on my previous post with QQ saying there's 3 combos of that, there's only one. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[@bsolute_luck]

yes i know there are only 2 combos (unless he plays TT like a maniac on the flop), i just don't see what hands he would 3-bet this river with unless he had 1 of the 2, but given the size of the pot, i guess folding would be a bad idea...

[thesharpie]

A guy who's possibly steaming could easily 3 bet the river with something like AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].