Missed a draw and fired; Am I in a dark tunnel?

[KneeCo]

Second hour 20+2 DeepStack.

Villain is a pretty solid player post-flop who limps into too many pots. I'm playing about 20% of hands myself, but have only shown down solid hands and haven't been caught getting out of line. Me and the villain haven't butted heads HU until this point.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

MP2 (t12525)
MP3 (t7420)
CO (t4830)
Button (t14555)
SB (t5434)
Hero (t12390)
UTG (t3452)
UTG+1 (t4050)
MP1 (t4510)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls t100, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t300) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t600</font>, SB folds, Hero calls t300.

Turn: (t1500) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t400</font>, Hero calls t400.

River: (t2300) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1500</font>

His turn bet was weak, perhaps content with the chance to chase my straight, I made a mistake by not raising him right there.

Nevertheless, with a T or a K I think he bets more so I guessed he either had a busted flush or a mid-pp and fired at the river.

I never feel comfortable pulling this kind of bluff because bluffing at the river OOP when I missed a draw was a big leak of mine back when I was a (passive?) newb and it still feels like desperation chip spewing sometimes.

[mts]

just wow. i will never understand why people do this in tournaments like these. Keep donkin those chips off.

[MLG]

gimme a fcking break. there's nothing wrong with this play when used on occasion. In fact this is a pretty good time to try it because given the possibility that the villain was on a flush draw a larger than normal % of his hands will be made up of hands he cant call with (like Q high flush draw) that will beat you. I think the play is fine.

[JustPlayingSmart]

When I look at it, I don't like it. But objectively, you're getting 1.5-1, so you only need to have him fold 40% of the time. I think he has diamonds a fair amount of the time, and I also think he folds a 6 (which is another likely holding) a lot of the time. With his remaining stack of about 3700, this is a really good bet. So, yeah, after examining it fully, it does seem like a decent play. Obviously if he has a ten then you feel like an idiot when you can't call his push, but realistically, he shows up with squat so often here he just can't call a lot of the time.

I have to admit, I rarely make this play after missing a draw, but I have been successful when I have made it, so this is probably something a lot of us could look at using more often.

[Sam T.]

I don't object to the river bluff in some situations, esp. with a big ol' stack like that, but I really don't like it on the ten. It does look a lot like a flush draw slowing down when he misses the turn, but it may well be a Tx thinking, "Whoops." (Seeing monsters? Perhaps.) So if he's on a draw, then it's nice, but if it's a weak ten, it's not so nice. Now, if an Ace had rivered, I'd love this play.

That said, the point that it doesn't have to work all that often to be profitable is a good one. I wonder, though, if t1000 would accomplish the same end. If he's got a handful of nothing, he's folding for that amount as well...

Sam

[AceofSpades]

My vote is dark tunnel.

Why?

He min-raises flop, a sign of strength * could be flush draw trying for free card

Then bets turn

then ???

so a raise (in position), and a turn bet...

I just don't see how often you're going to be ahead here/get your opponent to fold