turn spew stars 30

[etizzle]

4 handed stars 30, noone has really been going crazy but I happen to be up a bunch of money on this table if anyone is paying attention.

Anyways the SB in the hand is pretty LAG preflop (47/38 over 50 hands) and the BB is more reasonable 30/20 (fairly tight for 4 or 5 handed i guess). They both calm it down a little postflop, AF of 1.5 for each but take it for what its worth as its only for about 50 hands for SB and 100 hands for BB.


Heres the hand:

I raise from the button with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , SB 3 bets it and BB calls.

(4.5 BB) flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bet, call call.

(7.5 BB) turn is 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bet, raise, 3bet

the plan was checking the river unless I hit a 6, 7, or club (and bet-folding if I hit a club).

[Spicymoose]

Once you are at the turn, I kinda like your plan. Getting 6:1, you would need about 7 outs, which I think you have. A raise might fold SBs better hand, and you are paying the same amount as calling and calling a river bet. What was your original turn plan? Were you assuming the action would probably go bet, call, and then you could either raise or fold depending on if a A or K hit?

I think I normally just raise this flop, and take it from there.

[tizim]

Very nice. You have a good chance of having the best hand, you may knockout a better hand from SB, you may clean up outs by knocking out sb (ie 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8), you charge sb the maximum if he has something like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K-9, and this all costs pretty much the same as calling down because only strong flushes are capping. Not a spew at all.

[TStoneMBD]

i normally would raise this up on the flop and im interested to hear your reasoning for waiting because im not sure if i like that better.

after the turn hits i think the 3bet is very good. your plan if capped HU is to call the cap and fold the river right?

what if its capped 3 ways on the turn, are you folding for 1 extra bet cause i think thats right?

[Spicymoose]

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what if its capped 3 ways on the turn, are you folding for 1 extra bet cause i think thats right?

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The pot would be laying 17:1, and I think often enough SB has AA [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JJ, thus making your 3 non [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6s good, and your 7s sometimes good. Since that is 5 outs, 90% of the time we lose 1 bet, so we need the 10% of the time to add up to an EV of at least +9 BB. Since the pot will be around 18, we need to win just about 50% of the time when we hit our set or straight for the turn call to be correct.

If SB caps the turn, the way he played it would align with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ all of clubs. That is 5 combos. He might also have AA or KK with a club, or JJ. That adds up to 9 combos, discounted slightly because he might not play like that, so lets call it 8 combos. But, we also have to factor in that BB could be the one with the flush. This might just barely push us over the edge of winning on the river with our straight or set. Also, the fact that our set doesn't even work against his 3 combos of JJ is bad.

I think this is pretty close if SB caps, or calls, but UTG caps, and it is 1 back to you, but I think TStone is right, and it is probably a fold.

[etizzle]

yeah my plan was exactly as you say if more bets go in on the turn. My thinking was that BB would have raised the flop with top pair to knock me out, or with a set to maybe get big action from SB or me if i flopped a jack. It seemed like he either had a semibluff or possibly a middle pair that wanted to see a good card come off before raising (like i did =)).

I waited til the turn because I did not expect to knock anyone out and there was a pretty decent chance I was beat already by SB. So i waited to see if i could dodge another card before putting more $ in.

When bb raised the turn I couldnt really put him on a hand that beat mine (or if he did have me beat it probably wasnt by much and my outs would be good a lot of the time), and there was some small chance I could get SB to fold a better hand (88, 99, maybe just maybe an overpair or a jack).

If the bb could have me beat (ie might slowplay a J or set or flushdraw on this board) then the whole plan is probably a bad one. It may not be any good if I can't ever ever get sb to fold a better hand which may be the case except for 88 and 99.

thanks for replyin, and man i can't wait til the split.

[flawless_victory]

cap preflop.
flop/turn standard.

also, yelling 6c at monitor as the river card dealt also standard.

[etizzle]

meh i dont like preflop cap against 2 players. If bb was a little looser i'd like it more (if he was as loose as sb). That said the bb certainly doesnt have me domintated or he would've capped it himself, so maybe it would work fine.

[TStoneMBD]

i prefer raising the flop rather than the turn in this hand because you cant be sure that the SB will bet his ace high into 2 players. there are also alot of scare cards that could fall that either make you decide not to raise or you raise but your hand has less value because the likelihood of it being ahead is reduced significantly.

i like raising the flop here because youre very likely ahead but alot of bad cards can come on the turn.

a good point to waiting until the turn to raise is that if an overcard falls, sb bets and bb raises i think you can safely fold your hand. by raising the flop you dont give yourself that option.

[smartalecc5]

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what if its capped 3 ways on the turn, are you folding for 1 extra bet cause i think thats right?

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The pot would be laying 17:1, and I think often enough SB has AA [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JJ, thus making your 3 non [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6s good, and your 7s sometimes good. Since that is 5 outs, 90% of the time we lose 1 bet, so we need the 10% of the time to add up to an EV of at least +9 BB. Since the pot will be around 18, we need to win just about 50% of the time when we hit our set or straight for the turn call to be correct.

If SB caps the turn, the way he played it would align with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ all of clubs. That is 5 combos. He might also have AA or KK with a club, or JJ. That adds up to 9 combos, discounted slightly because he might not play like that, so lets call it 8 combos. But, we also have to factor in that BB could be the one with the flush. This might just barely push us over the edge of winning on the river with our straight or set. Also, the fact that our set doesn't even work against his 3 combos of JJ is bad.

I think this is pretty close if SB caps, or calls, but UTG caps, and it is 1 back to you, but I think TStone is right, and it is probably a fold.

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good analysis.