Take my 5 out draw... or bet

[flopmonster]

Can some1 give me some insight on the preflop raise. I normally never make this play and I don't really understand its purpose completely.

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
Mp1 is tightish and slightly passive 19/5/1.5. Fold to flop bet is 45%, fold to turn bet is 20%. WSD 31 W$SD 54

PF: MP1 limps, I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from the button, blinds fold.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, He calls

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I....and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

A tightish player limps, then calls your raise. He c/c the flop and his flop fold is .45 (so he'll call more than half the time) I think he likes the flop, and I think a check is in order here.

Against an LP i'd bet to VALUE, cause I think I'd likely have the best hand here. But against a tag that's called a raise and a bet on the flop, I don't think I can fold him now, or win with my pair of 5's.

I'm too lazy (and gotta run to class soon) to sort out the math, but I think it important to evaluate the expectation of checking versus calling. Its good that you have his "turn fold %" cause our guesses will be more accurate.

Lets assume he has a J...for simplicity, and to get the ball rolling.

test flight: 3 big bets in the pot (2.5? rake?).
1) Take betting
Out of 100 trials:
- he folds 20 times and calls 80 times (we win 3BBX20=60BB)
- 71.3 (41/46 X 80) times we haven't hit our hand, and he's still with us on the river. (we lose 1BBX71.3 = 71.3BB)
- we will hit our trips/2 pair 8.7 times of the 80 that he calls (5/46 X 80). We will win when we hit our draw. If he calls our bet on the end, we make 5BB(8.7) = 43.5BB (5BB is his river call and turn call + 3BB pot). (If he doesn't call our bet on the end, we make 4BB(8.7) = 34.8BB)

==> +60BB when he folds, +43.5BB when he calls and we outdraw him, and -71.3BB for a net profit of 32.2BB, or 0.3BB/hand.

(how's my math?)

2) Take checking
....i think checking is another matter, since he could check the river and we can either c or b. Or he bets the river and we....? (fold)



The case is, what does he have? If he missed, then we should bet. The turn could have helped him. What does he think of you? Will he think that you will bet the turn if checked to? Will he try to c/r and trap you here? If he calls the turn, I'm folding the river to a bet. I believe a tight player has a pair of 5's beat.

[Felipe]

I think i totally fudged the math there. Someone want to tailor it?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Can some1 give me some insight on the preflop raise. I normally never make this play and I don't really understand its purpose completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, I call this a position raise.

His limp signifies something like a PP or maybe suited something or another or maybe a suited ace.

Anyway, my hand probably is not much better than his but my position adds value to my hand in that raising sets me up to steal on the flop if we both miss (the majority of the time the flop does miss).

Basically against tightish players or folders, it sets up another way to win.. encouraging them to fit or fold.

Also it makes your late position raises more unpredictable and makes you less readable.

Also a hand like Ax prefers less players, so keeping the blinds out improves our equity.

[flopmonster]

thanks flair...this is somethingh I haven't really put much thought into....duly noted

[DMBFan23]

I like checking behind and folding to a river bet. tight passives won't have some shitty weak draw or A high often enough on that flop call to continue on the turn. best case you're hoping for KT, but you'd know by now if he were the type to peel with KT.

against very loose passive players, I bet the turn and probably check the river because I am more likely to have the best hand and I can easily fold to a C/R

against super aggro [censored] I check behind and call a bet because I have outs and want a showdown, and he will bluff a TON because I checked.