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#11
11-21-2005, 04:15 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
You will never the see the upside variance for mutliple reasons... most likely you haven't because you jump and run up 3 or 4 buyins... then move to another table... or take a break... and re load with the max... but not the 2-4X buyin you had.... so the other players who have bigger stacks can only double you up, not triple or quad your orginal buy in up....
Lets say you sit down with $200... double up, then make a big win... now you have $600... someone at the table has $950... now if you double through you are up 5 buyins.. sit a while longer take out a few short stacks ($200) and you are on you way.. but if you jump and run... GL, 
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#12
11-21-2005, 04:42 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
[ QUOTE ]
You will never the see the upside variance for mutliple reasons... most likely you haven't because you jump and run up 3 or 4 buyins... then move to another table... or take a break... and re load with the max... but not the 2-4X buyin you had.... so the other players who have bigger stacks can only double you up, not triple or quad your orginal buy in up.... Lets say you sit down with $200... double up, then make a big win... now you have $600... someone at the table has $950... now if you double through you are up 5 buyins.. sit a while longer take out a few short stacks ($200) and you are on you way.. but if you jump and run... GL, [/ QUOTE ] wrong thread?
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#13
11-21-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
I would call this in a second and be happy about it. Your opponent here raised preflop so the only hand to be really concerned about is JJ and you have to imagine that raises again on the turn with such a draw heavy board. He could have AKs, but that would probably bet the flop.
Call the river; if you lose so well.
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#14
11-21-2005, 06:06 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
[ QUOTE ]
I hate the question "why would you make this bet when a worse hand folds and you only get called or raised by a better hand?" The answer is that there a lot of players that can't give it up and hope this is a bluff, and instead of a crying call they push. I think this is a clear call. [/ QUOTE ] If 1) worse hands fold and 2) better hands raise, then there is absolutely no reason to bet the river. You're basically answering "no" to the first part of the question and then pretending like the question is useless even when the answer to both parts is "yes."
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#15
11-21-2005, 06:09 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
OP said that this player is aggressive. I assume that J-J, 6-6, 4-4 and 3-3 are all in his hand range here. As are A-x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K-Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and maybe 10-9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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#16
11-21-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
Remember, I'd only seen 14 hands against villain, so my "read" was only a first blush estimate. And it's precisely because he seemed aggressive that his play was so confusing.
I pretty much agree that those cards are in villain's range. But, none of those hands would have played that way, if he was really aggressive. For what it's worth, villain turned over JJ, and hero said "Huh???" and scratched his head heh. Guess that just goes to show how worthless "reads" can be sometimes lol.
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#17
11-21-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
The problem is what can he possibly put you on? Are you really going to be bluffing an empty side pot with a missed draw representing a river hand? You've bet out on the second six and the flush and he has said I don't care about either of those possibilities. At best you can hope he has a straight and puts you on three sixes. I don't think you are ahead 30% of the time unless you have a read to tell you that this guy is too stupid to recognise the value of his hands relative to the board and has misplayed his overpair.
As an aside I agree that I would definitely try to avoid this problem by check calling the river.
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#18
11-21-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
Only reason I don't like calling in this situation is SB's stacksize. If SB decides to make a desperation allin bet on this flop, we're effectively sandwiched inbetween him and a preflop raiser. Even on this flop(which is decent for us) I wouldn't feel comfortable calling SB's bet...knowing that I could be calling a rather large raise from villian
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#19
11-21-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
I know people won't like this, but when I'm playing my A game, I fold this preflop.
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#20
11-21-2005, 06:29 PM
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Re: River makes my flush, but also pairs the board
If you're going to be a contrarian, you have to provide an explaination [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
(Yes, I'm trying to pick your brain here)
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