River makes my flush, but also pairs the board

[Kyriefurro]

Only 14 hands on Button, so not much in the way of a read. From what little I've seen, though, he seems pretty aggressive. He's also been bragging about how he's mainly a MTT table and how well he does on those games, which may or may not be significant.

SB seems loose passive and hasn't done anything to catch my attention yet.

Stacks:
Hero - 54.10
Button - 61.33
SB - 6.50

Prima .25/.50 NL 6-max <font color="blue"> (4 players) </font>
Hero is in BB w/ 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG folds, Button <font color="red"> raises to $1.50 </font>, SB calls, Hero calls

($4.50) Flop <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

($4.50) Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls, Button <font color="red"> raises to $3.50 </font>, SB <font color="red"> raises to $5 (all-in) </font>, Hero calls, Button calls

<font color="green"> At this point I'm thinking that either SB or button caught the straight. If I catch my flush, I'm probably good and I have a gutshot to a bigger straight than what's out there, so I have 12 full outs. I'm getting exactly 3:1 to call SB's 3-bet, so a call is justified. </font>

($19.50) River <font color="blue"> (3 players, 1 all-in) </font>: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $15, Button <font color="red"> raises to 54.83 (all-in) </font>, Hero.......?

[lautzutao]

fold. And next time don't call a raise with 87s out of position.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[ QUOTE ]
And next time don't call a raise with 87s out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be ridiculous. I make this call 100% of the time. Hero is calling two blinds with a nice suited connector and effective stacks &gt; 100 blinds; easy call.

SpaceAce

[mustardo]

Yeh pretty easy fold. Nothing wrong with the preflop call.

[Rockatansky]

I think the pre-flop call is marginal because the SB is shortstacked, and it doesn't sound like Button is going to let you draw cheaply.

While I think that it's possible that he could have put you on a baby flush and decided to bluff the river, it's not very likely. Against a competent player, I think this river is a check / call. You bet into him after the board paired and the third spade fell. What is he raising that you beat? Maybe A-6 or something like that, but doubtful.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeh pretty easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain why?

My own thoughts upon further analysis: While there are several *possible* hands that villain might have that hurt me, most of them seem unlikely given villain's play. AsKs (or other big spades) wouldn't raise on that turn. 33, 44, and JJ are a concern, but 33 and 44 wouldn't raise PF, and it seems likely that any set would have re-raised on the turn, especially since I'd called the original 3-bet. He'd want to isolate the all-in and get me out of the pot in case I was drawing (which I was heh). From villain's play it seems he most likely has a middle PP (99/TT).

Either way, I'm getting 2.5:1 on his all-in bet. I only need to be ahead here 30% of the time to make calling this profitable, and I think that's probably the case.

I would not be so sure villin didn't raise on the button with 33 or 44. In a short handed game and an unraised pot I might. Also, in my experience, a big raise on the river like this usually means a bigger hand than u have, either the nut flush or full house.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a competent player, I think this river is a check / call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I like this better than what I did.

[Leptyne]

I like your play and your reasoning. If villain had any kind of hand here then he clearly mis-played it.

For your river lead I am more in favor of a blocking bet (approx 20% of pot) and thats only if you think villain knows and would recognize a blocking bet.

I hate the question "why would you make this bet when a worse hand folds and you only get called or raised by a better hand?" The answer is that there a lot of players that can't give it up and hope this is a bluff, and instead of a crying call they push. I think this is a clear call.

[Hattifnatt]

Pretty easy fold IMO.