Overpair turns OESD and faces aggression

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
20% of the time you win 95% (approx.)
30% of time you win 85%
15% you have 12 outs to win (25%)
35% you have 6 outs to win or tie (12%)

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the way you think. This is exactly the type of break down I try to make myself do when I play (although I don't always succeed). When this hand actually played out, I didn't actually put any numbers on it, but I did note all the possible hands villain had, and realized I was ahead of a lot of them, and had outs to beat most of the rest.

For what it's worth, I think the bluffing percent might have been even higher than 20% based on the shots he'd taken against me before. But 20% is a good, conservative estimate.

In the end villain showed 67o for two pair. Oh well.

[freehat]

All-in, there are also soooooo many action killing cards on the river, and you should be cool against the villain's range, and you can't fold so push.