[3/6] I suck at Rivers -- AA OOP vs. Possible Flush

[ReptileHouse]

Hmmm... Interesting hand. From villain's perspective, the only reasonable hand that 5d helped you with is 55. More likely is you slowplayed something on the flop. AJ, 33 or JT, most likely. Since you have a TAG/LAG image, he'll have expected a 3-bet preflop from TT or JJ. Add in the fact that you may be semibluffing a flopped OESD and villain is likely to just call down an overpair here rather than fold. I think he'd fold UI overcards, though.

If we assume a standard pre-flop EP raising range, his turn call narrows things down quite a bit for us. QQ-AA and AJ are most likely and all of those will call down. From what you've seen of villain, he may also call down 99 or 88 here, assuming his PFR range goes that low.

I really don't like seeing the board pair here. I'm now behind a lot more of his possible holdings that I was before. I think it's very unlikely we'll ever fold out a better hand by betting. We're about 50/50 against the above holdings, so we'd really like to see a showdown.

If you think villain would never bluff raise the river with less than an overpair here, bet/fold is OK, but from your description it sounds like he might well do that w/ AJ thinking he just caught up to your BB special crapola J3s or T3s. This pot is big enough that folding top two pair is just not a realistic option.

I bet/call, but I have a hunch that check/call might be the better play. I can't back that up with more than a hunch, though.