[3/6] I suck at Rivers -- AA OOP vs. Possible Flush

Xhad · #1 12-12-2005, 04:37 PM

Lately I've noticed I seize up and turn loose/passive on the river too often. Sorry if this seems obvious but as I said, I suck at these situations right now.

Villain is 18/11.8/2.4 after 161 hands but this is my very first hand at this particular table.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Villain raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, Villain calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero 3-bets, Villain calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Villain calls.

River: (8.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero???

#2 12-12-2005, 04:39 PM

Bet.

crunchy1 · #3 12-12-2005, 04:41 PM

What is it about anything of his play on the streets prior to the river that makes you think that it's likely that he's hit a flush?

Xhad · #4 12-12-2005, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an incomplete answer.

newhizzle · #5 12-12-2005, 04:42 PM

i bet and call a raise, theres a lot of hands hes calling with that you beat(such as TT or A9 or something), you really have to bet the river, you might be able to fold to a raise against this guy, but i would call

#6 12-12-2005, 04:43 PM

Bet/call.

Bet because you will get called by worse hands often.
Call a raise because you will see a worse hand bluff here >1:10.

Xhad · #7 12-12-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is it about anything of his play on the streets prior to the river that makes you think that it's likely that he's hit a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Paranoia? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Actually by the river I put him on 88, TT-QQ/9-x/King-face card/flush draw, then almost checked the river fearing a raise before I realized just how silly that was.

ReptileHouse · #8 12-12-2005, 04:58 PM

bet/call the river.

A flush would suck (free-card play raise on the flop from villain), but I don't think that's extremely likely. Possible, but not likely. The flush hands that would be raising pre-flop would be primarilly AK-ATs, KQs and maybe KJs, but that's a very small percentage of his possible holdings. AK would probably cap pre-flop, but a lot of folks don't, so that's still a very possible hand. I just wouldn't worry much about a flush here until given reason to believe otherwise.

The call on the turn implies he has a pair smaller than kings and is calling down. Also possible is AK and he's waiting to let you bet into him again on the river with TT-QQ or overplayed UI overs.

I'll call a river raise and expect to be shown AKo a pretty significant amount of the time in that situation. This is the only time the flush really enters the equation, IMO. It's the only thing that stops me from 3-betting a river raise. He'll pay off a river bet with pretty much any reasonable pocket pair. A value bet here is pretty much mandatory.

Harv72b · #9 12-13-2005, 12:00 AM

This hand should be the poster boy for the river bet/call. Lots of weaker hands will call a bet, a few more will bluff raise, and tons of weaker hands which would have called a bet will check through.

Much more interesting discussion if you'd been holding QQ. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Xhad · #10 12-13-2005, 03:50 PM

@reptilehouse: I think you underestimate the possibility of A8s/A6s or something like QTs/JTs given the position of the PFR, but you're probably still right.

@harv: Well, what if I did have QQ? This post is more about my general bad river play than this specific hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Honestly I would check this on autopilot a mere 2 weeks ago, but after I thought about it for two seconds I realized that betting was probably correct for reasons confirmed in the replies here. I bet intending to call, Villain called and showed JJ.

Some context on the following hand: I am on an unholy rush of cards. That $400 stack came from a $150 buy-in less than an hour and a half ago. Villain is relatively new to the table, and has been playing decently though there was one hand where he PFR from an early position, I called in the BB with 99, flop 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he goes to war on the flop and calls down and shows 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8. So I can't yet tell if he's a LAG, or a thinking TAG who thinks I'm a LAG based on my coincidentally hyper-aggressive play at this table.

I think I screwed up the turn here (in retrospect I probably should have donk/3bet), but given that I didn't, how should I feel about the board pairing? Since I'm no longer beating an overpair, should I try to induce a bluff from overcards?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 (Villain) raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, Villain calls.

River: (8.66 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero: ???