Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP

[jrbick]

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An even better question -- What suit is GOT's A?

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I raise next to act with AhJc.

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-d

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DOH! Excuse me and my lazy mouse...

[ckessel]

I wouldn't raise because I'm not convinced you're ahead >50% of the time. If you raise against 1 opponent you need to be ahead >50% and he'd need to call that 50%.

I'm pretty damn sure you're ahead often enough to call 1BB for a showdown (since the entire pot is at stake). I'm definately not sure you're ahead often enough to value-raise.

[gaming_mouse]

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As others have said, my standard play here would be to 3-bet if the Ace was a club, and call if the 6 was a club.

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So you are basically betting that he has a worse two pair rather than a set in the case where you 3-bet.

Assuming he coldcalls only with a suited A (which is reasonable):

A4s - 2 hands
A6s - 2 hands
A9s - 2 hands
AJ - 4 hands

66 - 3 hands
44 - 3 hands
99 - 3 hands
JJ - 3 hands (i'll discount to 1 b/c no PF 3-bet)
AA - 3 hands (discount to 1 also)

This makes the 3-bet look bad. I am assuming you think that we would have heard from the sets earlier. But wouldn't we also have heard from the two pairs -- even more so, since those hands are more vulnerable when played slow?

What am I missing?

Thanks,
gm

[GuyOnTilt]

MP was a limper. Offsuit Aces are reasonable hands for him here since he has ~a 30 VPIP, and even if that is questionable it should go up huge in value given his flop and turn line. Sets are extremely unlikely given his action,as someone in the mindset of just calling the turn planning on raising the river with a set would not have bet the flop into a PFR on his immediate left and visa versa. The same goes with 2-pair besides perhaps a turned 2-pair - and a turned set I suppose, but again, extremely unlikely - so there really aren't too many hands he can possibly have here besides A9, J9, something like x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or a weird-played hand worse than mine. I would give some serious extra weight here for A9 since someone would very reasonable play that hand this way every time, but the same can't be said for any of his other holdings, and certainly no hand that beats me.

GoT