|
|
|
|
#1
09-16-2004, 12:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
Thinking about Hellmuth's 4-1 comment, I ask this question:
First hand of the tourney. If you take some of the best players in the world like Lederer, Bruson, Ivey, Hellmuth, etc. told them what everyone at the table had for this hand. If a person went all in and the superstar pro was a 2-1 favorite, would he call? What about a 70% favorite? How much of a favorite do you think the top pros would have to be in order to call all in on the very first hand of the tourney. Or heres another somewhat similar question(perhaps Annie or Barry can chime in here): You hold QQ on the very first hand of the WSOP. Some unknown internet guy goes all in from EP. Do you fold? What about if you hold KK in the same situation? 
|
|
#2
09-16-2004, 01:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.
|
|
#3
09-16-2004, 01:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat. [/ QUOTE ] Are there really people out there that are 90% favorites? That seems so high to me. That would mean folding aces preflop if somone bets all in. That would mean folding top flopped set if there is a flush draw out there that you put your opponent on and he moves all in. I can't imagine even the very best pros being that good...can they?
|
|
#4
09-16-2004, 01:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813 Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187 At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding.
|
|
#5
09-16-2004, 02:09 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813 Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187 At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding. [/ QUOTE ] cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ah 1315168 76.81 391637 22.87 5499 0.32 0.770 7d 6d 391637 22.87 1315168 76.81 5499 0.32 0.230
|
|
#6
09-16-2004, 02:14 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ad Ah 1388072 81.06 317694 18.55 6538 0.38 0.813 Ks Kc 317694 18.55 1388072 81.06 6538 0.38 0.187 At worst I am an 81% favorite if I hold aces. So even on the first hand of the tourney, if I held aces and it will be a heads up call of an EP all in, I'm calling. With any other hand I am folding. [/ QUOTE ] So you fold Kings here? I'm by no means a world class player, but I am a long time winner at the $215 STTs online and at the big buy in multis, and folding Ks preflop boggles my mind. I've only folded Qs preflop three times and both of those were because it was near the bubble.
|
|
#7
09-16-2004, 02:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up.
I think Hellmuth's comment was just talk. I don't think there is any way he, or anyone else, passes up a 4-1 edge.
|
|
#8
09-16-2004, 05:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
This is mathematically the right way to look at it, but there is no way any player in the universe is close to a 90% favorite to double up. [/ QUOTE ] With the increasing number of bad players in big tournaments, you could theoretically get to the point where a top player has a 90% chance of doubling his initial stack just by playing his normal game and not taking big gambles. I tend to agree, though, that no one is probably at that level currently. But I don't have any stats to prove it one way or the other, so that is why I gave my answer mathematically.
|
|
#9
09-24-2004, 11:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust.
I also doubt that most of them do it by going all in. They double up playing conservative poker, blind stealing, etc. I bet they hope to avoid pushing all in until they've doubled up a few times ... Yes, they will. But how often does that really happen in a large MTT?
|
|
#10
09-25-2004, 02:45 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
"I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust."
That is inconceivable. And its truth would imply that such a player should fold not only kings but also ACES if forced all in (getting slightly better than even money) at the beginning of the tournament. I'm sure that even the most egostistical of the top tournament players would put themselves below 70%.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
