Two Plus Two Older Archives Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice
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#1
11-13-2002, 04:17 AM
 balt999 Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 289
Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

This happened to me at the Mirage on sunday...I was dealt 6c3h in successive hands?? What are the chances of that happening??

Sorry, guys, I mucked both preflop [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]
#2
11-13-2002, 04:25 AM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326.
#3
11-13-2002, 11:28 AM
 marbles Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Wauwatosa, WI Posts: 568
Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

"1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326."
I concur. Note that if you play 1000 hands (which doesn't take all that long, particularly if you're an online player), it most likely WILL happen at least once (p=.53).
#4
11-13-2002, 12:57 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

And if you play 1326 hands, it will happen 63.2% of the time which is approximately
1 - 1/e since (n-1)/n is approximately 1/e for large n.
#5
11-13-2002, 02:39 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
what\'s the approximation???

Bruce,
what's the relationship you're using? I'd just like to know, since it's obviously not (n-1)/n approx 1/e for large n.
#6
11-13-2002, 03:34 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: what\'s the approximation???

Oops, sorry. Make that [(n-1)/n]^n = 1/e for large n. This is the probability of something not happening in 1/p tries if the probability of it happening each try is p. So in this case we have (1325/1326)^1326 = 36.8% = probability of not getting 2 in a row in 1326 tries.
#7
11-13-2002, 06:02 AM
 Dynasty Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 4,044
Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

It happens a lot. I'm still waiting for 3 in a row. I have gotten the same hand 3 times within an hour recently

#8
11-17-2002, 02:01 PM
 King_J Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Lulea, Sweden Posts: 214
3 in a row

Happend to my friend when he was playing on true poker.

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