Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-13-2002, 04:17 AM
balt999 balt999 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 289
Default Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

This happened to me at the Mirage on sunday...I was dealt 6c3h in successive hands?? What are the chances of that happening??

Sorry, guys, I mucked both preflop [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-13-2002, 04:25 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-13-2002, 11:28 AM
marbles marbles is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Posts: 568
Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

"1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326."
I concur. Note that if you play 1000 hands (which doesn't take all that long, particularly if you're an online player), it most likely WILL happen at least once (p=.53).
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-13-2002, 12:57 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

And if you play 1326 hands, it will happen 63.2% of the time which is approximately
1 - 1/e since (n-1)/n is approximately 1/e for large n.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-13-2002, 02:39 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default what\'s the approximation???

Bruce,
what's the relationship you're using? I'd just like to know, since it's obviously not (n-1)/n approx 1/e for large n.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-13-2002, 03:34 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: what\'s the approximation???

Oops, sorry. Make that [(n-1)/n]^n = 1/e for large n. This is the probability of something not happening in 1/p tries if the probability of it happening each try is p. So in this case we have (1325/1326)^1326 = 36.8% = probability of not getting 2 in a row in 1326 tries.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-13-2002, 06:02 AM
Dynasty Dynasty is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 4,044
Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

It happens a lot. I'm still waiting for 3 in a row. I have gotten the same hand 3 times within an hour recently

Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-17-2002, 02:01 PM
King_J King_J is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Lulea, Sweden
Posts: 214
Default 3 in a row

Happend to my friend when he was playing on true poker.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.