ATL / BUFF

[humdinger]

Okay, there's two games I like this week. See my Cin/Chi post for the other.

I also see some things I like in the ATL @ Buff game.

Both teams run. They run run run. They run all day. Vick or no Vick, they run. If no Vick, Dunn and Duckett get more carries.

With Buffalo's secondary, anchored by two tremendous safeties, ATL will struggle to pass. 3rd and 6? Draw play. They run.

On the other side of the ball, I believe (I should double check...) Mathis is back for Atlanta. Hall is a great cover corner. They, minus Mathis, held Philly to 10 points. Buffalo will put the ball in their RBs hands more than Philly did, but that's just more grinding of the clock. They may pass on 3rd and 6th, but will have limited success.

You can see where this is going. This will be a very quick game, because the clock will rarely stop turning. I like the under in this game.

I also sort of like ATL +3. Tampa avg 4.8 yds/carry vs Buffalo, and Houston averaged 4.1. Atlanta has one of the most prolific running attacks, and I think they'll do very well in Buffalo.

So, I really like the under. I sort of like ATL + 3.

thoughts?

hd

[CCx]

common sense says under here, and you know what happens when common sense is involved in picks

i like buffalo here - first there's the travel factor for atlanta, second straight road game, 3000 miles from their last road game... outdoor game on grass naturally slows down vick when he's healthy - i think buffalo will rebound after last week's terrible performance in tampa, and look to shut down atlanta at home like they did houston at home in week 1 - i think vick being dinged up will further limit his mobility, and with that factored in, atlanta becomes much easier to defend as they really only have 1 receiver, the tight end... teams are also beginning to have vick's number now that he's been in the league a few years and there's plenty of film available on how to take away his legs and make him pass - i think buffalo's defense does exactly that today, and they come away with the win

how buffalo scores points however, well, that's a good question - gonna have to start with good field position and mcgahee's going to have to run wild, i dont think losman can throw the ball.... honestly, i think if they let holcomb start a game this year, it could be trouble as he's got a live arm and combined with their running attack could spell trouble for all but the best defenses...

good luck!

[playersare]

most books have already moved down to ATL +2.5, and now it looks like the sharps are favoring buffalo by a slight margin.

you can still buy +3 for around -121 to -125, and that's with a 10% chance of push. I would wait until closer to gametime for a better price.

as for the O/U, 36 is already pretty low and there isn't any particular street value on either side so far. your "hunch" will cost the standard vig.

[Jackmama]

[ QUOTE ]

On the other side of the ball, I believe (I should double check...) Mathis is back for Atlanta.


[/ QUOTE ]

All else aside, you really should have checked this. Mathis is out for the season, after tearing his knee up in practice a couple of days after the Eagles game. That said, I don't think a nickel corner would have had a terribly big impact on the outcome of this game.

I like the over on this game, simply because conventional wisdom seems to want the under. I have OVER 36.5 as part of a parlay I placed on a lark.

[YoureToast]

Here's my weekly Falcons analysis. I will not be betting this game (except as part of a teaser) -- its my policy.

humdinger has it pretty close. however, mathis is out for the year and the question is whether their other nickle corner and punt/kick returner, rossum, will be playing. I actually don't think it matters much for the reasons mentioned by others here -- buffalo can't pass. based on what I saw in tampa, losman is the worst QB in the league. so, notwithstanding the lack of depth of the atl secondary, buffalo won't have success passing the ball. as a further result of this, they won't be able to run the ball. watch closely for the health of brady smith (de), who was out of the seattle game. he will be a key for atlanta stopping the buffalo running attack. they won't have much success anyway, but if brady is in there, buffalo's offense will probably look as bad as in tampa (which was AWFUL).

as for the atlanta offense, i would not expect a lot. i think vick is almost 100% so you shouldn't base any decision here on the fact that he's hurting a little. cadillac ripped through the buffalo defense and they don't have much of a passing threat either, so I would expect atlanta to move the ball against buffalo. jim mora has indicated that they will be opening up the offense -- I'm not sure of what that means, but I can see M. Jenkins or R. White getting open deep in this game. Jenkins has been wide open for TDs 3 times in the first 2 games -- 1 catch to the 1 yd line, 1 drop and 1 overthrow.

final analysis: if you want a side, i wouldn't take buffalo. with atlanta, I'd teas them to 8.5 or 9. on the total, I too like, but don't love the under at 36 -- but I'd be weary about atlanta really being aggressive in this game. they will come out gunning and likely won't let up.