My second pick (Cin/Chi)

humdinger · #1 09-25-2005, 03:18 AM

Like I said last week (under NYG/NO), I don't pick or post a lot. But every once in a while a game stands out to me. This week, I find the Bears Bengals game intriguing.

In week 1, Vikings ran for 2.2 yds/carry. Then, against the Bengals, the Vikings running game, in all it's splendid disarray, ran for 5.5 yards/carry.

In week 1, the Browns ran for 5.3 yds/carry vs the Bengals. Then, in running up the score at Green Bay, they dropped off to 2.4 yds/carry.

These are two BAD running teams (MIN and CLE) who had PROFOUND success running the ball vs Cincy.

Now, enter Chicago. Thomas Jones has had a LOT of success running the rock this year, and Cedric Benson is getting some carries. Chicago is a defense-first team, obviously, and will work towards that by pounding the ball all day.

Normally, when this is the case, I like the under. However, I'm afraid of the total in this game, because CHI may be TOO successful running the ball, and score quite a bit.

Cincy, on the other hand, is a bit of a public darling. People are in awe of their offense (even though they've only played MN and CLE...weak defenses). People think they can win the AFC North. People think Carson Palmer is the next Peyton Manning.

Granted, it's a little tough to say how good the Bengals O is, and it's a little tough to say how good the Bears D is (both have looked good vs. bad opponents).

If the Bengals O and Bears D are even close to even, then the other side of the ball heavily favors the Bears.

I like the Bears +3. I like the Bears on the moneyline, +135. And I sort of like the under, 38.5.

Agree/disagree?

hd

MyTurn2Raise · #2 09-25-2005, 03:42 AM

The problem is that the Bears have no passing attack, so Cincy can sell out to stop the run. I'm going the other way on this game, but I accept your point as valid--Cincy's run defense does leave alot to be desired. I expect the Bears to try and run out the clock as usual, and hope a fluke play or two goes their way.

ThaHero · #3 09-25-2005, 04:40 AM

I dont know why you doubt the Bears defense. Even last year with a lot of injuries they were still ranked 13th in the league. And that's with facing GB and Minny twice each, the 5th and 6th ranked total offenses last year. And that is with a weak offense. Their D is for real, and it's healthy this year so it's even scarier.

With all that said, I like the under. Chicago was Under 5 times last year out of 8. The 3 teams that went over- Indy, Green Bay in the last game @ 34o/u, and SF at 35.5 by 1 point. With Cincy's poor run D, I expect Chi to eat up a lot of clock and try to grind it out, and acheiving the under.

I don't know if I really like either team. As you said, both have played mediocre teams, so I'm still on the fence. But the fact that everyone is on Cincy sets off alarms. I think everyone was on Detroit too and we see what happened.

playersare · #4 09-25-2005, 08:22 AM

+3 and the under are definitely in line with the consensus right now. and +135 is indeed a good ML value since most books are now dealing -120 ATS which has an interpolated price closer to +117.

betting Chicago to win straight up might be your best deal. with the +3 spread you have to lay more down and then you have to worry about the push. good luck

WLC4Ever · #5 09-25-2005, 12:36 PM

Looks like we'll get some rain during this game. I'm about 2 hours south of Chicago, and if they're getting the same storm then Bears +3 and the under looks much better. Take away the pass and Cinci's in big trouble.

Ken_AA · #6 09-25-2005, 12:52 PM

Those running stats are interesting, but since Minnesota was way behind from the start, I'm rather confident that the Bengals were paying a little more attention to stopping the pass instead of cramming the line of scrimmage.

however, I'm a bengals fan and have gotten myself all worked up over there good start.

Ken

Uglyowl · #7 09-25-2005, 12:59 PM

Bears are +4 now, fire it up.

smartalecc5 · #8 09-25-2005, 02:25 PM

bears are losing by ten now, but once kyle orton regains compusure during halftime- the Bears are gonna get some points on the board!

P.S. That trash-talking slob, Chad Johnson, is out of the game with an injury.

P.S.S. I am a biased bears fan.

MCS · #9 09-25-2005, 03:47 PM

Ugh. I liked Chicago +3 better than anything else this week, and it looks like they're just getting slaughtered. Then they finally score and Cincinnati gets it right back.

Maybe Chicago can score again and then get a "meaningless" TD for the push. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

edit: Guess not.

MyTurn2Raise · #10 09-25-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bears are losing by ten now, but once kyle orton regains compusure during halftime- the Bears are gonna get some points on the board!

P.S. That trash-talking slob, Chad Johnson, is out of the game with an injury.

P.S.S. I am a biased bears fan.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to have composure to regain it.