This push plus or minus EV

[jenson]

Hi,

Thank you for your effort. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I will try to be more specific:
1. Let's assume that the SB will only call my All In with top 25% and that he doesn't care what the button does.

2. Let's assume that if I push and am called in both places, both players end up seeing the showdown.

3. If I check, well I'm not quite sure. What makes sense here?

Can you assist me in understanding the methodoloy you used? This will help me to perform these calculations myself in the future.

Regards,
jenson

“Give a man a fish; you have fed him for today. Teach a man to fish; and you have fed him for a lifetime”—Author unknown

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you assist me in understanding the methodoloy you used?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what methodology you mean.

To get the pot equity when called, I used PokerStove. Incidentally, I used the slider in PokerStove to choose the top 25.2% of hands. That might not be the right set of hands for overcalling.

To get the figures like a 1/2 chance that one player calls, that came from considering the 4 possibilities of whether each player would call. There was a 1/2 chance that the button would call, and I assumed that independently, there was a 1/4 chance that the SB would call. So, there was a 1/8 chance that only the SB would call, and a 3/8 chance that only the button would call.

[jenson]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push, about 3/8 of the time, you pick up the pot, gaining 900.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused regarding the above quote.

If there is a 1/2 chance that the Button calls and a 1/4 chance that the SB calls then isn't there a 3/4 chance (1/2 + 1/4) that at least one of them calls?


Again, just trying to understand this so that I can use it in the future. Thanks for the clarification. It is much appreciated.

Regards,
jenson

[jenson]

Too late to edit my previous post but on further consideration:

If there is a 1/2 chance that the Button calls and a 1/4 chance that the SB calls and a 1/8 chance that they both call then isn't there a 7/8 chance (1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8) that at least one of them calls? Otherwise put 1/8 chance that they both fold.

Now i'm really confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Cezar]

[ QUOTE ]
If there is a 1/2 chance that the Button calls and a 1/4 chance that the SB calls and a 1/8 chance that they both call then isn't there a 7/8 chance (1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8) that at least one of them calls? Otherwise put 1/8 chance that they both fold.

Now i'm really confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you are confused. You're double and triple counting the times that both SB and button call. You are supposed to substract it, not add. Here is a neat formula to remember
Event 1 has probability P1, event 2, independent of event 1, has probability P2. At least one event will occur with probability

P1 + P2 - (P1*P2)

May be this will help you understand better.

You're correct that they both call 1/8 of the time.
Now, button calls half the time, regardless of what SB does. That 1/2 already includes 1/8 chance that they both call. So, it is actually 3/8 chance that ONLY button calls and 1/8 chance they both do. Same goes for sb. 1/4 chance that SB calls is a sum of 1/8 that ONLY sb calls and 1/8 that he is overcalling button.
And the final answer is, 3/8 chance only button calls, 1/8 sb, 1/8 two calls, total 5/8 chance of getting one or two calls.

I'm awful at explaining things, do tell me if I only made it worse and need to rephrase it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Cezar

[jenson]

Cezar,

Thanks for the great job of explaining this problem. It has really helped my understanding.

I've created a little spreadsheet that can be used to calculate the results of this play.

My wife said that I would be better off using my free time elsewhere. lol

Should anyone be interested in checking it out, I've included a jpg with this post and also a link to the xls file.

Any thoughts are appreciated.



EV of this play