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#1
09-27-2005, 07:26 PM
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Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
villain has already limped in a couple times utg so im not afraid of a monster
***** Hand History for Game 2785873571 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16123683 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Tuesday, September 27, 19:10:09 EDT 2005 Table Table 15036 (Real Money) Seat 7 is the button Total number of players : 4 Seat 2: Hero( $2690 ) Seat 3: Eagreps ( $1350 ) Seat 7: kreutz000 ( $1560 ) Seat 8: jkdmantix08 ( $2400 ) Trny:16123683 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 2s 2c ] Eagreps calls [200]. kreutz000 folds. jkdmantix08 folds. Hero checks. ** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 3h, Jd ] hero checks. Eagreps is all-In [1150] 
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#3
09-27-2005, 07:31 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. [/ QUOTE ] what hands do you think hes pushing w/ here?
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#4
09-27-2005, 07:37 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold. [/ QUOTE ] what hands do you think hes pushing w/ here? [/ QUOTE ] I personally don't think it matters. If he turned over his cards and showed them to me, I still wouldn't be confident about calling unless he showed me something like 42. You're way way behind a bigger pair. And any 2 overcards can still draw out. You still have a large stack. There is no reason to call off half of your stack on the bubble when the blinds are still small. Especially when you're only a slight favorite (and possibly a big dog).
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#5
09-27-2005, 09:46 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
I'm usually pushing preflop. Calling the flop is read dependant. I wouldn't have the guts to call unless I had seen the villain playing flops very aggressively.
To you who said it's an easy fold: 22 is a substantial favorite against overcards with only two cards to come. If your opponent showed you AK you shouldn't need to think for two seconds before calling.
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#6
09-27-2005, 10:14 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
[ QUOTE ]
To you who said it's an easy fold: 22 is a substantial favorite against overcards with only two cards to come. If your opponent showed you AK you shouldn't need to think for two seconds before calling. [/ QUOTE ] You're wrong. 22 is only 56% chance to win on this board. Risking half your stack on this hand is foolish.
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#7
09-27-2005, 10:21 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
That's if your opponent has AKs with a backdoor flush draw. I said AK, not AKs. Against AKo you are about 60/40 favorite, and even a 6% edge is more than enough with these pot odds.
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#8
09-27-2005, 11:32 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
Using Pokerstove for the following numbers on a JJ3 board:
22 vs random hand - 52.127% to win 22 vs any pair, any Ace, any 2 face cards - 41.42% to win 22 vs any pair, any Ace, any King, any 2 face cards - 45% to win This is very close to a coin flip. In fact, you are more than likely less than 50% to win. If you don't know why you want to avoid a coinflip on the bubble, read this.
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#9
09-27-2005, 11:48 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
the thing is I was pretty sure I was up against A high and that villain did not have a pair
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#10
09-27-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: Call this flop overbet on the bubble?
[ QUOTE ]
the thing is I was pretty sure I was up against A high and that villain did not have a pair [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how you come up with such a conclusion. The villian's play makes a lot of sense for hands like 77-TT. Even so: 22 vs any Ace - 54.221% to win
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