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  #11  
Old 12-19-2005, 05:13 PM
Al P Al P is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Well the current odds are 9:1 but your "real" odds were 4.5:1 because the total for the round was $20 for a $90 pot.

So before you called the $10 for $50 you needed to tell yourself, "this could cost me $20 for $XX" so my odds are potentially worse than 5:1. But since you have people behind, when they just call you'll be getting 6:1 or 7:1 on your call sometimes too.

It's up to you and your reads on the players to make correct assumptions during play and adjust your odds somewhat accordingly. If you're at a super aggro table and in EP you should scale your odds downwards (worse pot odds) and if you're at a table of calling stations you should scale them upwards (better pot odds).
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  #12  
Old 12-19-2005, 06:11 PM
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Darren, I have a question for you - have you actually played much poker? It almost seems like you're so weighed down with information from TOP, but no poker experience to relate it to.

[ QUOTE ]

This runs counter to what Keyser seems to be saying on his last post. His understanding is that the first $10 before you were raised is already in the pot and gone - so the pot odds would actually be 7 to 1 - an additional $10 into a $70 pot, despite the fact that you already put in $10 earlier in the round.

I'm not sure which one is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer this question, there are two sides to the sword. You are asking if you should call 1 raise. The answer is, of course. Like you said, if you had odds to call the first bet (5 to 1), then folding now (8-1) would make no sense. New pot odds should be considered each decision, even if it's in the same round of betting.

HOWEVER...

You are only getting 8-1 because you've already dumped $10 into the pot. You're really paying $20 to see the next card, coming to 4-to-1 on your money. The only relevance to this second side is if you can predict someone raising behind you. This should make more sense when it actually happens to you.

Here's a good example:

Same situation as before, starting with a $40 pot. P1 bets ($10), you call ($10), P3 raises ($20), P1 re-raises ($30). Now you are to act, required to call another $20. Basic pot odds would say specify that you're putting $20 into a $100 pot, but I would probably assume that P3 is going to cap. Therefore, when it's all said and done, you will actually putting another $30 into a $120 pot.
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  #13  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:44 PM
DarrenJG DarrenJG is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

"Darren, I have a question for you - have you actually played much poker? It almost seems like you're so weighed down with information from TOP, but no poker experience to relate it to."

I've got some experience under my belt and I'm trying to sharpen the theory. This is just a fine distinction I was trying to clarify on a fundamental point since TOP was not entirely clear and people's understanding on the forums seems to differ. I just wanted to make sure what I've been doing is theoretically correct - better than just guessing and wondering.

Actually, judging by your response, the answer to my question is BOTH of the suggested answers I mentioned. This is not exactly crystal clear stuff.

So, it sounds like you're saying the pot odds are NOT really calculated cumulatively, since once you put money in the pot it is gone, HOWEVER, if you anticipate a raise behind then you should AT THAT POINT calculate in the added call you know you'll end up making. But if you get a SURPRISE raise behind you, the pot odds for that next call will just be based on that one call.

Is this correct?

Thanks.
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  #14  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:58 PM
DarrenJG DarrenJG is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Thanks much. As I wrote below to bootswild, it looks like IF you anticipate raises behind, then you clearly need to factor that into the pot odds as you state above (known as "real" odds). But if you get raised from behind and had not anticipated it, then the decision at that point would be based on the "current" odds of 9:1 as in your example above.

I just want to be sure I'm correct in my understanding.

Thanks again for the clarification!
Darren
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  #15  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:28 PM
BradleyT BradleyT is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Ya that's correct.

Also, in a multi-way pot a raise behind on the flop isn't always a bad thing if you're drawing to a monster hand where you can anticipate multiple big bets (raises) going in on the turn or river.

So now that you've got this figured out, move on to implied odds (which is what the above paragraph is talking about).
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  #16  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:32 PM
DarrenJG DarrenJG is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

BradleyT,

Thanks again. This is great info.

Darren
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  #17  
Old 12-20-2005, 08:45 AM
I am fish I am fish is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

I am going to attempt an example.

Let's say you are playing $10/20 and in the Big Blind you hold 98s.

A Player raises from middle position, the small blind calls, and you call in the big blind.

6 small bets so far ($60)...

The flop comes A 7 5 ... rainbow, but none of your suit.

Now, the person in the small blind who is first to act bets into you. You appear to be getting 7 to 1 for a call. However, behind you yet to act is the preflop raiser which makes a raise behind you more likely. You should consider what this would do to your pot odds. If it is raised behind you and the small blind calls, you will have put in $20 to win $100, thus reducing your odds to 5 to 1.

If you knew it would not be raised behind you, then it may be worth it to call when the small blind bets the flop. You are a 10.75 to 1 dog to hit your gutshot straight, but because you could expect to pick up at least 2 big bets (4 small bets) you could call getting 7 to 1 immediate odds knowing you are getting at least 11 to 1 implied odds on your 10.75 to 1 odds to hit your hand.

Let's go through this example hypothetically...
Let's assume that you call the small blind's bet, it gets raised behind you, the small blind calls and you call. As I said before, this is the equivalent of getting 5 to 1 odds as you have put in $20 to win $100. The odds against you hitting your gutshot draw on the turn is 10.75 to 1. Meaning you will miss your draw 10.75 times for every 1 time that you do hit it. Let us assume that if you miss your draw, your opponents will bet on the turn and you will fold. And... if you make your draw you will win the hand you will get one big bet from each of your opponents on both the turn and the river.

So, the 10.75 times that you fold on the turn, you will have lost $215.00 (10.75 x $20).

The one time you hit your draw you win the $100 dollars your that was there from the flop, plus you gain 4 big bets from your two opponents $80, for a total of $180.00

That means over 11.75 hands, you lose an average of $35... giving you a negative expectation of about $3 per hand.

Thus with these assumptions, when you get raised in this situation... over time... you lose money. You'll wish that you had never called in the first place.

However, at the point in the hand after you called the 1st bet and it gets raised behind you and the small blind calls... then you must call the 2nd... because at that point in the hand you are getting 11 to 1 for a call closing the betting. Whenever you are getting proper odds to win the hand, you must call... if you don't you are losing money. So assuming you folded every time in this situation... you would lose $10 per hand (the original bet you called).

So to recap, you would make money in this hand if you knew it would not be raised behind you but could expect to pick up at least 2 more big bets.

If it was raised behind you, and you called, you would lose money for the hand over time in this situation.

And if it was raised behind you, but you fail to call the 2nd bet when you were getting proper odds, you lose the most out of these 3 scenarios.

Of course, it's hard to say what would really happen for the rest of the hand. But I think this example gives a general idea of the concepts... Although, I may have just complicated everything for you.

Hope this helps.
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  #18  
Old 12-20-2005, 12:04 PM
DarrenJG DarrenJG is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Wow. That completely clears it up.

You calculate the pot odds based on the full anticipated round b/c you can then AVOID making the first call - which would have led to a losing situation anyway. However, if you fail to anticipate correctly, and make the first call, then you have no choice but to call the second, b/c while it has an overall negative expected value, it is the lesser of two evils since folding will be even worse.

I can't thank you enough for taking the time to illustrate this.
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  #19  
Old 12-20-2005, 01:20 PM
jtr jtr is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

[ QUOTE ]
So, it sounds like you're saying the pot odds are NOT really calculated cumulatively, since once you put money in the pot it is gone, HOWEVER, if you anticipate a raise behind then you should AT THAT POINT calculate in the added call you know you'll end up making. But if you get a SURPRISE raise behind you, the pot odds for that next call will just be based on that one call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Others seem to have answered your questions pretty comprehensively, but I just wanted to say that I think you've put it extremely well here.
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  #20  
Old 12-20-2005, 01:49 PM
DarrenJG DarrenJG is offline
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Default Re: Basic Pot Odds Questions - Please Help a New Guy

Thanks. I think 'I am fish' explained the underlying theory VERY well in his post. That REALLY helped me.

What a great forum - thanks again to all who responded.
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