I can call this flop right?

BWillie · #1 07-09-2005, 10:29 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

UTG is TAG. Button is fish.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Greg J · #2 07-09-2005, 10:49 PM

3 outs for a gutshot (not 4 -- it's ass ended) and 1 more for the BD flush gives you ~10.5:1. You are getting 9.5 immidiate odds (rake), but you are getting the implied odds to make this call, esp since you are closing the action. Calling is okay -- it's kinda close.

Cancer Merchant · #3 07-09-2005, 10:49 PM

You're getting 10:1 with 5.5 outs (4 gutshot + 1.5 Backdoor Flush) outs. This is enough to call. If you discount the BDF outs, since they're non-nut, it's 10.5:1; not a horrible call, especially when closing the action.

Greg J · #4 07-09-2005, 10:51 PM

I think you are being a little generous. You should not give 4 full outs for a one card ass ender.

Chris Daddy Cool · #5 07-09-2005, 11:02 PM

its fine.

newfant · #6 07-09-2005, 11:09 PM

Quick and dirty:

Assume that on the turn, you win if you hit your gutshot. 3 outs. 47 cards to come. 6.4% chance of hitting on the turn. The pot is laying you 9.5:1 which means you have a 9.5% chance to win. However, I think a safe assumption is that you will get at least 2 more BBs out of UTG due to his PF raise and lead on flop, so the implied odds mean the pot is laying you 13.5:1 or 6.9%.

With these assumptions it's a close fold. However, if you think you can get another BB out of someone on the turn or river, then the pot is laying 15.1:1 or 6% and you can call. Plus, you have the back-door flush which may be good if it hits. However, there will be instances where button has a 7 and you will end up splitting the pot so you can prolly figure you have right around 3 outs at the moment.

I think you can assume here that you can get 3 more BBs out of someone on the turn and the river, so I would make this call. If this call is a mistake, I think it's a small one.

Let's do the turn:
The pot is laying you 6.75:1. Let's assume you'll get one more BB out of UTG on the river, so the pot is really laying you 7.75:1. You now have a flush draw. This time, let's put UTG on a hand range and use pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com) to figure our equity. Since UTG is TAG, let's put him on 99-AA, and AK-AQ and AJs.

With UTG's range you have 31% equity. Very nice. 7.75:1 is 11.5%, so the turn is a much easier call than the river.

Well played.

Edited to add: On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

Greg J · #7 07-09-2005, 11:13 PM

New avatar -- classy as always.

thesharpie · #8 07-10-2005, 01:42 AM

Who check raises this turn? I probably always would if he's capable of betting the flop and turn with unimproved overcards. He would have to be weak to try this if he's likely to have an overpair.

newfant · #9 07-10-2005, 02:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Who check raises this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting idea.

If villain is a true TAG (and in my PokerTracker database I only see about 3 true TAGs over the 5000 hands I've played), then I estimate his range as AK, AQ, AJs and TT-AA. So, he will have overcards here 36 times out of 66 or 55% of the time (is that math right?).

If we check-raise, we are putting 2 BBs into a 6.75BB pot, so if he would fold his overcards here even 30% of the time this play should be profitable (especially given our likely outs).

However, if villian only raises AK and TT-AA UTG, then he only has overcards 16/46 times or 35% and he would need to fold his overcards almost every time for this to be profitable. Actually, we prolly need to exclude A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from being folded so his likelihood of folding here is prolly no better than 32%.

I think I'm going to try this play in the future and see how it works out. Thanks for the suggestion.

turaho · #10 07-10-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling the river is the worst possible idea ever. You have 7 high. Do you really think UTG has been bluffing this entire hand with a worse hand?