fold the flop or bet the turn?

Dallara · #1 02-02-2005, 05:34 PM

I'm not happy with how I played this hand, but I'm not sure what the best line would be. Middle stages of a $30 Party MTT. Villain is very LAG, raising pre-flop and betting many flops.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t4950)
UTG+2 (t2607)
MP1 (Villain)/ (t2686)
MP2 (t2755)
MP3 (t980)
Hero (t1275)
Button (t445)
SB (t1140)
BB (t1200)
UTG (t385)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t50, 2 folds, MP1 (Villain)/ raises to t100, 2 folds, Hero calls t100, 3 folds, UTG calls t50.

Flop: (t375) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Villain bets t150, Hero calls t150, UTG folds.

Turn: (t675) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: (t675) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets t300, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t975

Villain doesn't show.
Outcome: Villain wins t975.

Like I said, Villain has been raising lots of pots. Almost always bets out on the flop. I decide to call the flop with second pair. After the turn check, I guess I was worried about a check-raise given that I'd often seen Villain bet out on the turn as well.

Questions -
1 - dumb to call the flop if I'm not going to bet the turn? what can I hope for, that it's checked down? is 200 enough to bet on the turn or is that just asking for a check-raise?
2 - am I seeing monsters under the bed to think that villain has KQ here? it seems to fit with the min-raise pre-flop and bet on the flop. although he could just as easily had A-T or crap.

any thoughts appreciated.

Potowame · #2 02-02-2005, 06:00 PM

I would put more concern preflop on my read of the UTG limper. He could be limping in hopes the LAG raises to pop back at him. Your smooth call of the raise may have slowed him down.

AJ is pretty weak with the UTG limper so I would fold here. Without the limper , I would fold or reraise , Dont become a caller all the time.

You cant call the flop , and fold to the river bet. Why did you call the flop, because you thought you had the best hand right. What cards from then to now have given you the impression that you are now beat? I would Bet the turn to weakness, it was a standard continuation bet. I would bet About T300 if he folds good if he pushes you fold that simple. Dont be worried about being checK raised, cross that bridge when you get there.

other Than a LAG I would just fold this and find a better spot to get chips.

Glintir · #3 02-02-2005, 06:11 PM

Well, I'd say your first mistake was a call on the flop. You've got an aggressive player who made a weak PF bet, then a continuation bet on the flop, and you called. What does that tell you? Nothing. Either fold, or better raise. Take it up to 300-400. If he reraises fold. If he calls, worry.

On the turn, he checks. Maybe he's trapping, but based on your read of him, he more likely tried to steal it on the flop. So if you did call the flop, there was nothing scary on the turn, so bet there.

If you did make it to the river by being passive, you might as well keep being a calling station and call his final bet.

So in short... define your hand on the flop, like Harrington says. And in this case that makes the turn and river easier.

 Glintir
Course, I could be wrong. I've been wrong before.

Glintir · #4 02-02-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would put more concern preflop on my read of the UTG limper. He could be limping in hopes the LAG raises to pop back at him. Your smooth call of the raise may have slowed him down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have to stop forgetting about the limpers. I hadn't considered the idea of the limper playing the Villain, but that's a strong argument for calling the flop to see if UTG suddenly raises.