Some hands with Benholio

[Dallara]

Hey Ben, just finished a SNG with you. Tried to say hello but you were distracted. Two bubble hands that I wanted comments on. Of course, the hand converter is down, so I will do my best to make it legible.

22 SNG PP, blinds 150/300
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: MP1 (4745)
Seat 3: Saden (975)
Seat 5: SB (760)
Seat 8: Hero (BB) (730)
Seat 9: UTG (790)
SB posts small blind (150)
Hero posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2d, 5h ]
UTG raises (790) to 790
UTG is all-In.
MP1 folds.
Saden folds.
SB folds.
Hero ??

So, there's $1,240 of money in the pot (including my 300BB) and I have $430 left holding 2-5o. On reflection, getting 3-1 on my money was probably a call. AK vs 2-5 is 1.8 to 1. Bigger pairs are pretty ugly, of course, AA-66 vs 2-5 is 6 to 1. Anyone think folding was right here?

I folded, busted out two hands later. The hand after that, Benholio (Saden) had a remarkably similar spot.

Same tourney, blinds now 300/600.
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: SB (4565)
Seat 3: Saden (975)
Seat 5: UTG (1670)
Seat 9: Villain (790)
SB posts small blind (150)
Saden posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
UTG folds.
Vilain raises (790) to 790
Villain is all-In.
SB folds.
Saden ??

Saden thinks for a while. Pot size is again $1,240. Saden holds 7-3o. $490 to call, so pot is paying 2.5 to 1.
Saden calls (490)

Board comes 7s,4s,9s,3h,tc. Saden hits two pair vs. Villain's pocket fives and picks up the pot.

Not being results oriented, but anyone fold here? Benholio, any comments?

[stupidsucker]

I had also had a run in with ben with a hand of a very close nature.

***** Hand History for Game 1170872236 *****
400/800 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7143313) - FRI NOV 12 19:11:43 EST 2004
Table Table 11646 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Saden (2900)
Seat 2: Vrel_sz (1180)
Seat 6: kcpk911 (3920)
kcpk911 posts small blind (200)
Saden posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Vrel_sz [ As, 9c ]
Vrel_sz: im not down that much
Vrel_sz raises (1180) to 1180
Vrel_sz is all-In.
kcpk911 folds.
Saden calls (780)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6h, Js, Kc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Creating Main Pot with $2560 with Vrel_sz
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2560 |
Board: [ 6h Js Kc Jc 4h ]
Saden balance 4280, bet 1180, collected 2560, net +1380 [ 6d 8c ] [ two pairs, jacks and sixes -- Kc,Js,Jc,6d,6h ]
Vrel_sz balance 0, lost 1180 [ As 9c ] [ a pair of jacks -- As,Kc,Js,Jc,9c ]
kcpk911 balance 3720, lost 200 (folded)


I am just not a fan of the pot odds call when the call is most or all of your stack. Sure on those times where you have most of you stack invested in the BB it is a no brainer, but I would have folded in every sitaution mentioned above.

I am in search of the truth. If I am wrong about these things I want to change it in my game.

[Benholio]

First, your 25o hand. I'd almost never fold a 3:1 pot odds call when I am shortstacked, but your situation has enough extenuating circumstances to make it a tough decision. Since there are 4 shortstacks and one really big stack here, you might actually still have a decent chance after folding here. If the chip totals at this point were 2000, 2000, 2000, 1300, 700 and you were the shortstack, I think you'd have to call here, since you don't really have much of a chance if you fold anyway.

Second, my 73o hand. This hand was a tough one. It takes a pretty bad hand to get me to consider folding against 2.5 - 1 pot odds, especially when I am shortstacked. What it came down to in this one was, if I fold here, I am at 425 chips after posting the SB next hand, and the next closest person has 1240 chips. I figure that isn't THAT much better off than if I lose here, so I have to take the shot at knocking out the other guy.

I didn't have time (obviously) to crunch the actual $EV numbers here using the ICM, but if anyone wants else to, I'd be interested to see if this was a proper call or not.

[Benholio]

Okay, I will attempt to make some calculations with the ICM on the two hands here.

First hand:

If you fold, your $EV is $19.40
If you call and win, your $EV is $40.46

We'll put UTG on any ace, any broadway, any pair, any suited king. Your equity against those hands is about 30%.

(.30)*$40.4 = $12.14

If this is all true, you lose over $7 of EV by calling here, so it is definately correct to fold.


Second hand:

If I fold, my $EV is $26.4

If I call and win, my $EV is $61.52
If I call and lose, my $EV is $8.18

37o has about 31% equity against the hands I put villain on.

(.31)*$61.52 + (.69)*$8.18 = $24.64

Based on that calculation, calling here does lose us about $1.76 of $EV. However, that doesn't take into effect that we will be posting the SB on the next hand, so I really think that fact swings this play to positive $EV. There are too many variables to guess at to see what kind of hit our $EV takes by posting the SB next hand to know for sure.

(disclaimer: I didn't double check these numbers, they could be wrong)

[Dallara]

Interesting that the 2-5 turns out to be a fold by ICM. I am going to have to invest some time in understanding that model a little better. I agree with your reasoning about the large number of small stacks making it a little easier to fold here.

I'm still not sure if I make the call with your 7-4, but I understand your thoughts about why you did.

What did you think of the final hand in that tourney? For those of you not there, it was three players, stack sized $1,700, $1,800, and $4,400. Both small stacks push, big stack is BB of $300. BB calls both pushes with 88. Small stacks have AK and A2. 88's hold up, and big stack wins.

I'm not sure that I call two all-ins with 8-8 in that spot. If you lose, you're no longer chip leader, and given that the other two are so close, I've have to figure one of them for a strong hand.

[Mammux]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure that I call two all-ins with 8-8 in that spot. If you lose, you're no longer chip leader, and given that the other two are so close, I've have to figure one of them for a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume they both have aces with kickers above 8, they only have 8 outs to beat 88.

-Magnus

[Dallara]

[ QUOTE ]

If you assume they both have aces with kickers above 8, they only have 8 outs to beat 88.

-Magnus

[/ QUOTE ]

The chance of any one card coming with 5 to draw is about 25%. That's why two overcards are about 50/50 vs. a smaller pair. I'm not smart enough though to figure out the exact odds if there are four overcards.

[Benholio]

8's are pretty solid 3-handed. Unless someone has an overpair, he's probably got plenty of pot equity to make that call. With the cards being what they were, he was like 53% to win, but that was pretty much a best case scenario.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=609770
pokenum -h 8d 8c - ah kc - ad 2s
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 8d 734973 53.62 630839 46.02 4942 0.36 0.537
Kc Ah 481780 35.15 860567 62.78 28407 2.07 0.361
2s Ad 125594 9.16 1216753 88.77 28407 2.07 0.101

Give the A2 guy a ten instead of a 2, and 8's are still pretty good here.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 8d 622159 45.39 745037 54.35 3558 0.26 0.455
Kc Ah 454842 33.18 892028 65.08 23884 1.74 0.340
Ts Ad 269869 19.69 1077001 78.57 23884 1.74 0.205

If you give the opponents 4 unique overcards, his equity goes only slightly below 1/3, but still correct odds since he has posted the BB.

8c 8d 447235 32.63 920296 67.14 3223 0.24 0.327
Kc Ah 521803 38.07 845728 61.70 3223 0.24 0.381
Ts Qd 398493 29.07 969038 70.69 3223 0.24 0.291

Really the only way he was in big trouble was against an overpair.

Now, maybe the ICM calculations here would be different, but I won't go there, too lazy! I'll say 8's or above will almost always call here.