Playing suited connectors - Page 4

#31 10-27-2005, 04:17 PM

I wouldn't raise preflop. This hand wants to see flops cheap and develop into them into monsters. Why try to narrow the field (the blinds)? The more the merrier with this hand. This hand misses alot anyway.

Flop: Get it capped. 15 outs to a straight or flush, right?

Turn: good, not much to say.

River: I like the call here, to encourage the others to play along (and worries of the 3-bet from a better flush).

bozlax · #32 10-27-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Looking again, you should have capped the flop when it came 3 back to you.
I still am strongly opposed to 3 betting. 3 betting this flop is just plain crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. You've got a cold-caller between yourself and the first raiser, so at least those two players are going to stay in. With JUST the flush draw you have enough equity to raise for value against 2 opponents (I discount the possibility of two-card flush over two-card flush almost entirely, as rare as it is; if the flush comes in and somebody else is still going nutbag, we worry about that, then). Add in the nut OESD and you've got enough equity to raise for value with just 1 opponent (you're better than 1:1 to make your hand by the river).

#33 10-27-2005, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Looking again, you should have capped the flop when it came 3 back to you.
I still am strongly opposed to 3 betting. 3 betting this flop is just plain crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. You've got a cold-caller between yourself and the first raiser, so at least those two players are going to stay in. With JUST the flush draw you have enough equity to raise for value against 2 opponents (I discount the possibility of two-card flush over two-card flush almost entirely, as rare as it is; if the flush comes in and somebody else is still going nutbag, we worry about that, then). Add in the nut OESD and you've got enough equity to raise for value with just 1 opponent (you're better than 1:1 to make your hand by the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you've discounted the flush over flush only further strengthens the argument not to 3 bet.
I think you are strongly overestimated the chance that SB,BB,MP2 are all coming along for 1,2,2 bets more respectively (especially now you've discounted the flush).

If Hero 3bets and SB folds, BB folds and MP2 fold(because their both facing a possible cap from MP3) it looks like this.
2sb dead money + 3sb from MP3 and CO = 8sb = 4sb equity
 If Hero calls.
sb folds, BBcalls, MP2 calls. = 8sb = 4sb equity
If Hero 3bets and a realistic best case scenario- all call.
= 12sb = 6sb equity.

Hero has 54% equity. Best case scenario, you make an extra 1BB on the flop. 

Hero is 54% to make his hand by the river and 32% to make it on the turn. This increased likelyhood of making his hand on the turn is a major factor in wanting to smooth call this flop AFTER SB 3bets , BECAUSE YOU HAVE RAISELISCIOUS POSITION.
In all likelyhood there is a very slim chance you would normally ever got the chance to cap this flop.

Even if you don't make your hand on the turn. You still want 4 players in. Hero is still 32% to make his hand on the river. If he keeps all 4+ players in he is making another +EV call on the turn and he gets to draw cheaply.
As matter of fact +12%EV*4BB = .5BB
If you had only 2 players left at this point his call is roughly neutral EV and this further reduces the profitability of the flop 3bet.

There are many times when a 3 bet on the flop with the straight flush draw is the right move.
IMO This is not one of them.

There have been a few cases of this overly aggressive 'edge pushing' on the flop recently.
 Kwazzie theory is: Never take the initiative away from an aggressor on the sb street, when you have perfect relative position on the BB streets.

SlantNGo · #34 10-27-2005, 09:42 PM

The problem with your math is that you've mixed up value betting/raising and calling. When you determine if a call is +EV, you use the size of the pot, not the bets going in on that street. Hence, you would not ever be making a "near neutral EV call" at any point in this hand. There are some other factors too, but this one is the most critical IMO.

bozlax · #35 10-27-2005, 09:47 PM

Kwaz, this is a very well thought-out reply, and I understand what you're saying. I have three issues:

1. I think you are significantly over-estimating the likelihood that players are going to bow out on any street (but especially the flop) when they've already put money in.

2. When either the flush or straight card falls on the turn, it's likely to kill your action. Even if the donks with overcards that were going crazy on the flop don't recognize the flush/straight, they're still less likely to still be crazy on the big-bet street with UI overcards. It may only be 1BB difference, but where do you plan to make up that 1BB?

3. Again, maybe it's only a 1BB swing, but if a hand like this comes up once every 50 hands, that's 2BB/100 added to your winrate if you get it in...actually, it's only 1BB/100 because it costs you an extra .5BB when you lose and you only add 1BB when you win. But, you see my point.

UATrewqaz · #36 10-27-2005, 09:53 PM

SSHE 101 - Gather around class.

Playing a suited connector...

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB caps, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (28 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (45 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 48 BB

Results below: MP1 has 9c Tc (two pair, tens and sevens).
CO has Ad 5d (two pair, sevens and fives).
Hero has 8h 9h (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 48 BB.

Hero pussies out on the river because he's no longer holding the nuts and leaves several more bets on the table.

Felipe · #37 10-27-2005, 09:56 PM

Don't three bet the flop
I think this is absolutely incorrect! Its preposterous and ridiculous.

Even heads up I want this hand capped on the flop. I'm a favourite to win the hand, even 2 handed! Not 3-betting/capping this flop is an ERROR (IMO) and it is costing hero money! Costing hero money = giving money to opponents.

For the mathy types:

chance to hit 15 outter = 1 - (chance of NOT hitting 15 outter)

= 1 - (32/47 X 31/46)
= .54

54% pot equity. Big edge.

bozlax · #38 10-27-2005, 10:04 PM

And another way to go about it (yeah, yeah, I posted in MP2 and this is the karma biting me in the ass, SIIHP):

Eurobet Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, Hero checks, 2 folds, Button raises, 1 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, BB folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB.
Results:
Hero has 6c 5c (a flush, queen high.)
UTG has Jc 9c (a flush, queen high.)
UTG wins 9.75 BB.

All this after I was talking about how rare flush over flush is. *sigh*

UATrewqaz · #39 10-27-2005, 10:10 PM

Slightly off topic:

I busted out of a tourney recently with a queen high flush when a guy had an ace high flush because I forgot something important I read in a book.

not verbatem but basically...

"When you hold a queen high flush and the Jack is on the board and you are up against alot of counter-aggression you must be careful. The only flush you can beat is someone with it ten high and very few people will continually push a ten high flush"

#40 10-27-2005, 10:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Kwaz, this is a very well thought-out reply, and I understand what you're saying. I have three issues:

1. I think you are significantly over-estimating the likelihood that players are going to bow out on any street (but especially the flop) when they've already put money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I can see as a strong arguement. But if you are villian facing 2 back to you without a flush or str8 draw, what do YOU do?
For every one person you knock out who would have given one extra bet, you cost yourself .54sb.
If SB would have called 2 but not 3, you've just blown away all your profit from making this play.

[ QUOTE ]

2. When either the flush or straight card falls on the turn, it's likely to kill your action. Even if the donks with overcards that were going crazy on the flop don't recognize the flush/straight, they're still less likely to still be crazy on the big-bet street with UI overcards. It may only be 1BB difference, but where do you plan to make up that 1BB?

[/ QUOTE ]
I make it up when it DOESN'T kill my action. That's the point. Both 1 and 2 seem contradictory. If they're dumb enough to cold call the flop, how are they smart enough not to bet the turn when my card comes. If they are smart enough to not bet the turn, it's only because I let them know what I had (or scared them)by 3 betting the flop.
[ QUOTE ]

3. Again, maybe it's only a 1BB swing, but if a hand like this comes up once every 50 hands, that's 2BB/100 added to your winrate if you get it in...actually, it's only 1BB/100 because it costs you an extra .5BB when you lose and you only add 1BB when you win. But, you see my point.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you make your hand and the aggressor bets out on the turn, you stand to make an extra ~85% of a possible 8BB. You can see how infrequently this line has to be correct to be more profitable.

Dont get me wrong. I'm all in favour of pushing massive edges when you've got them. And like I said I'm all in favour of 3 betting the str8 flush draw. I just think that in this case it is wrong. So if the str8\flush situation comes up 1:50 hands, then this particular str8/flush situation comes up maybe 1:400 hands.

The criteria has to be.
- I've got the underside of the str8\flush and I'm not clearing up outs by 3betting.
- I'm facing more than 1 villian with 2 cold when I 3 bet.
- There are two aggressors in the hand and I have relative position on the major aggressor for the following rounds.