How much gamble do you have in you?

[mcflog]

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how bout 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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While you would still stand a good chance with a 6 high straight. I would hate to think my life was on the line if runner runner spades came for the K high flush. Or even another 5 6 to give him the higher straight.

[castortroy]

No matter what answers people give on this question there's only 1 correct answer, which, I will quote from the movie wargames, "The only way to win is not to play." you can take the quick route and gamble it up and maybe die. or you can take the professional gambler approach ( the long run ) and get a job at mcdonalds and get the same money in 8 years.

[PairTheBoard]

I you took it once and won, would you take it again for another $100,000. And again, and again ... ?

PairTheBoard

[pollyson]

i accept in a heart beat and i choose a5 of spades

[Ulysses]

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$100,000 is NOT life changing. Not even close. But suffice to say, dying is a life changing event. Make it 20 million and I MIGHT wager my life with A5s.

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id like to just point out that you should accept this bet if you would accept a similiar bet, with less likelyhood of winning but equally proportionate profit.

in this situation you are getting paid 100,000 for a 96.5/3.5 shot. if you would accept 1,000,000 for a 65/35 shot then this one is a no brainer in terms of ev.

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true
perhaps that would be
if one had a bankroll of
lives

[TStoneMBD]

i wasnt trying to say that if you take the bet of 100,000, then you should also take the bet of 1 million. your "life bankroll" is short and you dont want to risk 1/3 of your bankroll on a 1 million dollar bet. what i was saying is that if youre willing to take the million dollar bet as a 2:1 favorite, then you should be willing to take the 100,000 bet as its proportionate in terms of EV.

the only way that i could someone arguing that its correct to take the million dollar bet, but not the 100,000 bet is if they were able to earn more than 10x the amount on that million in interest than they could with the 100,000. (ie: you have a ROI of 11% on the million, but a 10% ROI on the 100,000.)

again i wasnt at all implying that its a twoway street. it seems logical to me that accepting a bet of equal EV, but less variance is greater than a bet of equal EV, but greater variance.

[mack848]

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No matter what answers people give on this question there's only 1 correct answer, which, I will quote from the movie wargames, "The only way to win is not to play." you can take the quick route and gamble it up and maybe die. or you can take the professional gambler approach ( the long run ) and get a job at mcdonalds and get the same money in 8 years.

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Great 1st post - I did chuckle.

[Reef]

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what about a 1-foot putt for the same deal? You control the outcome but are you 96%?

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too much pressure. But you can be sure I'd be out putting 1 footers for 8 hours a day.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
No matter what answers people give on this question there's only 1 correct answer, which, I will quote from the movie wargames, "The only way to win is not to play." you can take the quick route and gamble it up and maybe die. or you can take the professional gambler approach ( the long run ) and get a job at mcdonalds and get the same money in 8 years.

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No, I still think my answer was correct. FREEEEEEEROOLLLL!

[ksuns]

If you're going to take it, don't be stupid. Why would you pick spades, if spades hit, you lose to a higher flush? Take the hearts or diamonds.