10/20 ATs

jason_t · #1 12-11-2005, 02:44 AM

Villain is 16.4/13.11/1.12.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, I raise, 5 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, I call.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, I call.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, I raise

mike l. · #2 12-11-2005, 03:04 AM

spew. 16/13 always has it or calls anyway. dont open yourself up to a 3 bet here. just call and get on with it.

#3 12-11-2005, 03:08 AM

I like it. This villain is pretty aggressive preflop. meaning that I think he will 3 bet you in this spot with AK,AQ,99's and above. If you assume he will never fold AK,AQ,QQ,KK,AA on this board, and he will always fold with 99,TT,JJ then your play will work 41% of the time. Given these assumptions it would be correct to raise this turn even if you had 32o.

#4 12-11-2005, 04:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. This villain is pretty aggressive preflop. meaning that I think he will 3 bet you in this spot with AK,AQ,99's and above. If you assume he will never fold AK,AQ,QQ,KK,AA on this board, and he will always fold with 99,TT,JJ then your play will work 41% of the time. Given these assumptions it would be correct to raise this turn even if you had 32o.

[/ QUOTE ]
Something obvious just occurred to me, judging by the villains postflop aggression, Im not sure if he would fire again on the turn with a hand like 99,TT,JJ. If the villain will not bet the turn with these holdings then raising is certainly a mistake.

goofball · #5 12-11-2005, 05:06 AM

Bad. He has a hand better than your and he's not folding. It seems you've chosed to lose 2 or 3 BBs when you don't hit, and win 3 when you do. Just call, lose one when you don't hit, win 3 if you do.

#6 12-11-2005, 05:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bad. He has a hand better than your and he's not folding. It seems you've chosed to lose 2 or 3 BBs when you don't hit, and win 3 when you do. Just call, lose one when you don't hit, win 3 if you do.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I think my initial analysis was wrong since I assumed the villain would fire again on the turn with 99-JJ, But I dont think this guy fits that description. So calling is better than raising against this opponent, but if this guy was the type to bet 99-JJ on the turn then raising is clearly better than calling IMO.

#7 12-11-2005, 08:42 PM

Given stat's, opponent's range is probably KA-QA, 1010 to AA. given this scenario, you probably have 16 outs going into the river. If you bet, opponent may fold the lower range of his hands. You win right there - yay. If not, he's probably calling with his K, and then again on the river. So, good value raise on the turn.

Only problem is if he reraises you on the turn. Then, what's your plan? I would probably call, if the flush or straight hits (assuming its not Kd), raise on the river.

Argun

CardSharpCook · #8 12-11-2005, 08:48 PM

I think the better explanation for those aggression stats is that he calls down WAY too much. The PF portion of his aggreession is huge, whcih means the post flop he becomes passive. However, I think it more likely that a guy who raises 80% of the hands he plays, continues to bet when he misses. But he doesn't fold his "good hands" when raised AF. He doesn't fold he mid PPs here, just shuts up and stars calling.

Entity · #9 12-11-2005, 08:51 PM

No me gusta. He's check-calling his weaker hands fairly frequently and you don't have any discernable folding equity given your numbers-only based read.

Rob