Gutshot Wheel Draw on flop - enough to warrant call or standard fold?

pokernicus · #1 12-05-2005, 02:53 PM

Is this an easy fold on the flop or should I be chasing?

Here are some reasons for folding:
- I've got four outs to the gutshot draw, one of which (4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) might make someone a flush.
- I am also susceptibile to redraws
- There are several players yet to act behind me.
- Even if I hit the draw and my hand holds up, I may end up having to split the pot if someone else has an Ace.

2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero??

SNOWBALL138 · #2 12-05-2005, 03:06 PM

this looks like a good spot to fold. You have a small pot odds deficit that could easily get magnified by a raise behind you. Also, so could make your draw and lose to a higher straight or a flush or split with another ace. Also, with this many players in the pot, you can't really be too happy about an ace coming off because someone could easily make a straight when you make top pair or you could end up outkicked.
Fold.

Nick C · #3 12-05-2005, 03:07 PM

The pot's not exactly small, and you do have two overcards to go with your wheel draw. I'd consider raising, actually.

There are some potential problems, though:

(1) With seven people seeing the flop, the chances are better than they would be at a tighter table that someone has a flush draw. And if the table is also passive, the flop checks don't tell us that UTG+1, for instance, does not have Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

(2) With so many seeing the flop, the chances that a 6 are out there cannot be disregarded at all. There's a good chance there's another ace in someone else's hand, but having someone else in the pot with a 6 has its problems too.

(3) Even if you raise, it's probably going to be hard to get rid of an ace, at a table this loose. And if a hand like A9 is out there and you can't get rid of it, that hurts your equity a lot.

Edit: (4) Oh, yeah, and like Snowball points out, you won't be able to get rid of a 4, and if one of those is out there, catching an ace would be worthless to you.

Hmm. I'm not really sure what's best.

pudley4 · #4 12-05-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this an easy fold on the flop or should I be chasing?

Here are some reasons for folding:
- I've got four outs to the gutshot draw, one of which (4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) might make someone a flush.
- I am also susceptibile to redraws
- There are several players yet to act behind me.
- Even if I hit the draw and my hand holds up, I may end up having to split the pot if someone else has an Ace.

2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

1 - Raise preflop. Limping is sub-optimal.
2 - Raise the flop. No one likes their hand so far; MP1 may be betting with any pair or even a 4 so you may be ahead; raising puts a lot of pressure on another A so you may save 1/2 the pot; you will very likely get a free turn if you want one.

krimson · #5 12-05-2005, 03:40 PM

I think this is a fairly safe fold.

The gutshot draw leaves you with the sucker end of a straight, which when ahead will be split quite often. Catching an ace leaves you possibly behind a straight, Ah and 8h possibly leave you behind a flush.

Our position relative to the aggressor sucks and there may be a c/r behind us.

The pot is big, but the whole situation kind of sucks. There isn't really anything we can catch here that we're that happy with.

Buck_65 · #6 12-05-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

1 - Raise preflop. Limping is sub-optimal.
2 - Raise the flop. No one likes their hand so far; MP1 may be betting with any pair or even a 4 so you may be ahead; raising puts a lot of pressure on another A so you may save 1/2 the pot; you will very likely get a free turn if you want one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this best. Raise all those limpers preflop with your strong multiway hand and raise this flop with what may be the best hand. If you're not best now, overcards+gutshot constitute enough reason to continue.

#7 12-05-2005, 05:14 PM

Easy fold. You could call this if you were using both cards for the straight, but a 4 makes your wheel straight a second best straight to anyone with a 6. You also may be drawing to half or even a third of the pot. I wouldn't even call this if I was getting the 10.5-1 that you'd need to hit a gutshot.

#8 12-05-2005, 05:19 PM

I would have raised preflop, which would have made the pot huge, and would have made a call or c/r more correct on the flop. As played, I think you have to fold the flop. As noted by other posters, your outs are very dirty. If you continue, raising is probably your best option.

gopnik · #9 12-05-2005, 05:26 PM

I'd call with one spade on the flop. You are drawing to a split pot. If you hit an 8 you can easily get outdrawn and A outs should be very heavily discounted. I don't think you have much going here. I fold.

pokernicus · #10 12-06-2005, 02:53 PM

Thanks for all the replies. I'm glad there wasn't a consensus - at least it makes me feel that the decision wasn't so straightforward!

I ended up folding in this spot. I think this is a raise-or-fold situation. I figured that with seven people having seen this flop, someone caught a piece of it. WIth all my tainted outs, folding seemed cleaner.

I hadn't really considerd the preflop raise here.

I figured that with four people already in the pot, it would be at least 5-6 way even if I raised. With this many people seeing a flop, my best bet to win the hand is by hitting a flush. In this case, it seemed to make more sense to see the flop for a low price. Also, I am behind to any pocket pair, any better Ace, and there are still four people left to act behind me. Is this reasoning reasonable? Or should I really be considering a raise here?

Here's how the rest of the hand played out:

...Hero folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 3d 5h (straight, six high).
UTG+2 has Ac Ks (straight, six high).
MP1 has 2h 2d (straight, six high).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 3.66 BB. MP1 wins 3.66 BB. BB wins 3.66 BB.