Calling station or pot justified?

Xiphoid · #1 08-23-2005, 01:40 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 3-bets, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

UTG+2 is 35% over 50 hands.

Flop: (16 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Back-door flush and straight and possibility or an A (though I could be beaten by AK or AA) hitting good enough to call here for one bet and closing the action?

Turn: (9.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flush is out of the question, but the straight possibility improved. Odds to call?

River: (11.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

An easy call for me here.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Piiop · #2 08-23-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+2 is 35% over 50 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

35% what?

[ QUOTE ]
A (though I could be beaten by AK or AA)

[/ QUOTE ]

Or KK or a 6.

[ QUOTE ]
An easy call for me here.

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I realize the pot is 12.5 BB at this point. Does your opponent HAVE AQ, TT, or 99 AND BET IT enough times to make this a good call?

toss · #3 08-23-2005, 01:48 AM

Getting 18:1 on the flop I'd have a hard time folding even with two marginal backdoor draws and pair outs.

I don't like folding the turn with a gutshot getting 10.5:1 even if it may be dirty.

I dunno if you win river often enough, but meh.

#4 08-23-2005, 01:51 AM

Here's how I see it. Folding on the flop was your best option. his display of strength represents AA, KK or AK, which means you're drawing dead to your backdoor draws. I don't really see justification for throwing in a call on the river, either, with the bettor showing as much strength as he did, but that's just me.

Xiphoid · #5 08-23-2005, 01:54 AM

35% vpip, preflop raise is 12%.

I didn't have that great of a read, but got a feeling that this wasn't a horrible player, but not a good one either.

Piiop · #6 08-23-2005, 01:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
35% vpip, preflop raise is 12%.

I didn't have that great of a read, but got a feeling that this wasn't a horrible player, but not a good one either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I guess it looks to be all marginal, but marginal + not marginal -.

Xiphoid · #7 08-23-2005, 01:58 AM

After seeing some alarms going off on a river bet that I thought was standard, it seems as if I'm following Miller's "call one river bet even if you're beat most of the times" mantra too much. The pot isn't enormous, but decent sized and I don't know how many times I have to be good here to show a profit.

Taking into account the PF 3-bet and the continued strength throughout the hand, the river play now becomes a lot more fuzzy.

slavic · #8 08-23-2005, 02:02 AM

If that spade was the A and not the Q I would feel much better about the flop call. Nothing criminal here but you should also get a feel for what a player 3 bets with not just how often they raise.