Follow through turn bet with this AK?

Xiphoid · #1 07-28-2005, 01:02 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

I need to start capping here.

Flop: (18 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Bet here, hoping to drop one or both players, and check/call on the river assuming a blank hits?

River: (12 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: 12 BB

TheHammer24 · #2 07-28-2005, 01:29 AM

I like capping preflop and betting the turn. On the river fold to a lead out, and don't over call.

Nick C · #3 07-28-2005, 01:34 AM

Against unknowns, the turn check seems all right to me. I'm thinking BB probably has a big pair or a big ace, and he's not folding either of those. For his part, MP1 seems commmitted to his wheel draw or flush draw or overpair. Unfortunately, he'll probably bet the overpair if he's got one after two checks, and he'll also probably bet if he happens to have, say, 33 for the slowplayed set on the flop and turned boat. But if he's chasing a draw he'll probably check, and you'll avoid the possibility of walking into a checkraise from BB's KK, if that's what he's got.

So, anyway, I don't think you have much fold equity on the turn (in part because of the wheel and flush draws), but you could have a bet for value. I'm not sure. (Given that the river checked through, it's looking like you quite likely did have a bet for value on the turn, though even if so, you could have just been tied with BB, and in that case the value on a bet would be very thin if, say, MP1 had Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 14 outs.)

I wonder if betting the river, in the hopes of folding out another AK or getting called by a worse ace-high is worth doing. I'm not sure. Getting raised or checkraised wouldn't be much fun, though. Plus, there is some small chance MP1 is just playing scared with 77 versus two players who have represented big hands and will check behind again out of fear with a better hand he wouldn't fold.

cmwck · #4 07-28-2005, 01:45 AM

I kind of like the idea of betting the river. The chance of Hero getting raised or check-raised is very low I think, and you may actually have the best hand. I think you'll get a call out of BB's AQ, but if you expect BB to call with AQ, or MP to call with something like AT, then you have to expect BB to call with AK as well.

Chubbers · #5 07-28-2005, 01:49 AM

I hate hands like this because AKo isn't profitable for me... lalala.. i always get done in this same position because some peanut has A3o or better, 34o.

However, i'd be inclined to bet the river. I figure if they were calling down with a pair of 2's they might fold. If they missed everything your raising your pot.

Klepton · #6 07-28-2005, 01:50 AM

cap AK preflop from any position at any time

following through on this turn would be awesome - you might lose MP1 or both, and then can just chekc behind on the river

cmwck · #7 07-28-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
cap AK preflop from any position at any time

following through on this turn would be awesome - you might lose MP1 or both, and then can just chekc behind on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like this if we could get rid of MP1. But what did he cold call the flop with that he's willing to fold on the turn for one bet when the pot is now at 13 bets?

Jake (The Snake) · #8 07-28-2005, 02:03 AM

It doesn't have to work very often at all for it to be profitable. I agree that there aren't a ton of hands he will fold, but people do weird things. Also, a bet could potentially be for value since there's still a possibility we have the best hand.

Xiphoid · #9 07-28-2005, 02:40 AM

Thanks for the input. BB showed AK as well and it was a split pot.

Next time around I'm definitely capping pre-flop and betting the turn. I'm still not sure on betting this river.