Party Bad Beat Jackpot EV

[JustPlayingSmart]

Just so you know, it could still qualify, if you used your other card as your kicker. An example would be if you have K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], your opponent had 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the board was Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Since both of you use both cards, it qualifies for the jackpot.

[bforester]

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I asked this a while back, and we couldn't figure out an answer, but I found a stat in Pokerstat that might allow as a group to come up with some kind of reasonable guess. If you go into Misc. Stats it gives you showdown % for different types of hands. For example, I have 27,000 hands in my database. I have shown down quads or straight flush 11 times. My showdown percentage is 100%. Looking at the hands, in none of the instances would my victory have triggered the bad beat, so to our group stats I add 27,000 losing hands. If we get a bunch of us to post those stats, we can guesstimate something at least.

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I wrote a computer simulation. 10 players in a ring game. Players will play all pocket pairs, any two cards ten or above (like AK, KJs or QT), any suited ace, and all suited connectors except 23s 34s. Puts them at about 20-23% VPIP. Everyone always went to the river. The odds for the BBJ hitting in these conditions are 1 in 200,000 games.

Assume that the BBJ happens 1 in 400,000 games (because people are sometimes folding before the river). Assume that you win 5% of hands played - so you pay 2.5 extra cents per hand of BBJ rake. Finally, given party's payout structure, if you're at a table that hits the BBJ, your equity in the jackpot is 7%.

SO: Jackpot * (.07) >= .025 * 400000

This means given my assumptions, Jackpot needs to be >= about 143,000 to make playing at the tables +EV.

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Why would you simulate playing all pocket pairs? I thought that the badbeat jackpot only qualifies if quad 8's or better is beaten. I hope you are not including quad 2's through quad 7's in your simulation results.

Thanks for the post. It has inspired me to write my own holdem simulations. I am still a programming newbie though.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Just to show how lucky I am. I've beaten quads twice in around 60k hands. Once was Quads over quads and the over time was a floped str8 flush vs turned quads. 3rd place was rivered aces full who had the Ace of trump that denied me my royal. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Later,
MarkV.

[Rudbaeck]

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Nice work.

Does anyone have some BB/100 comparisons for the BBJ tables vs non-BBJ tables? One thing not considered by the simulation is the fact that your table is probably going to be playing a little worse than normal due to the JP... e.g. cold-calling raises w/ suited connectors. This in itself contributes to positive EV...

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Not played enough on the BBJ tables to have an exact figure. But it should be significantly better.

BBJ: Normal table has 4-7 fish icons, NO TAGs. The rest a usual mix, with a few more rocks than usual. (I think rocks are people playing way over their bankroll as 2/4 is the lowest BBJ limit.)

I've sat at tables with 7-8 fishes and no money bags for several hours! On the normal 2/4 tables it's rare to have a table with 2 fishes without a few TAGs being lined up in the waiting list.

[Moss Factor]

It could be fairly easy to calculate the approximate average of how often a bad beat is triggered. Find out the dollar amount of every the bad beat jackpot triggered, add those numbers together, and divide it by 0.5, then divide by the total number of jackpots triggered. This gives you the average number of hands that went by until a bad beat jackpot.

To quantify the EV, you take the dollar amount of all the bad beat jackpots and divide it by the number of hands played to get all the jackpots. Theoretically, this should be exactly $0.50. With the added 30% cut that Party takes off the top and to create the new jackpot, you have an EV of $0.35/ hand. Also, you do not get the full 100% when you win. Assuming you get 25% of what is left, you're poised to earn $0.0875/hand. Thus, you would have to go more than 5.7 hands without dragging in a raked pot for playing at a bad beat jackpot table to be +EV.

So it's all dependant on the player. If you win a raked less than once every 5.7 hands, the bad beat jackpot tables are posev. If you win a raked pot more than once every 5.7 hands, then the BBJ tables are negev. I think most players don't rake in a hand more frequently than once every 5.7 hands, so the BBJ tables should generally be posev.

If my math or logic is wrong anywhere, please correct me.

[grouchie]

in the 20kish hands that i've played online at party poker I have only once had my quads beaten.

I had quad 7's and the guy beat me with a straight flush.

So, while it was a "bad beat" because it was only quad 7's it wouldn't even qualify for the bad beat jackpot.

the only other thing is that I almost exclusively play NL right now, and last I looked Party doesn't have any NL bad beat tables, only limit.