Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[shadow29]

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How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level?

I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind.

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Even I know the answer!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Assuming that after 100,000 hands you have a winrate of 3 bb/100, and a SD of 15 bb/100, the .95 confidence level is:

[2.070307452, 3.929692548]

so, we can be almost an entire bb/100 off from our "true" winrate. (I think).

The .99 CI is: [1.778176881, 4.221823119]

And that's even bigger.

So basically, you can never really know your "true" winrate.