Playing aggressively with marginal hands

Made a similar post in beginner's section, but figured I might get better responses here:

Could someone please explain to me both when and why playing aggressively with marginal hands (like middle pair) can be +EV? I have a hard time understanding why we would want to put in more bets when we are behind most of the time.

[ohnonotthat]

I'll leave it to others to provide a deeper explanation as well as additional (and likely better) examples, but briefly . . .

You have A-8/suited and call from the button after 3 others call; neither of the blinds raise.

Flop: Q-8-5/rainbow with one of your suit.

All check to the cut-off who bets; you are next to act.

Can you see where raising here is almost certainly the best choice ?

Your hand is too good to fold. It would be too good to fold without a backdoor flush draw; it's far too good with one but it's not near strong enough to smooth-call leaving a raise as your only viable alternative.

Why is to good to fold ?

1. There is a very reasonable chance you have the bettor beaten and if you don't you have as many as 5 possible outs to improve.

2. You may not have the bettor beat but may move him off his hand either immediately (unlikely) or on the turn (more likely). Put yourself in his position; assume he has Q/T or Q/J - both reasonable hands for him to have. His raise tells him he's likely beat - and possibly drawing dead or very thin. (If he has a pocket pair below Queens but above 8s he may very well fold to your raise - one of the few times you'll see an opponent bet the flop and fold to a single raise). Most players will [correctly] call and try to hit their kicker on the turn but usually fold if they miss as well as when a scare card (King, 5, 9 or 4) hits fearing they are now drawing really thin. Even if you run into a stubborn foe who believes folding is for wimps he'll almost certainly check the turn and may check the river even if you check the turn (which, btw, you shouldn't be doing very much if at all). Raising the flop allows you to take control of the hand away from him; this is almost always a good thing even with a strong hand; it's a necessity with a hand as weak as yours.

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Why is your hand to weak to call ?

Do you want to call and allow hands such as bottom pair, gutshots, middle pair (your pair) with a different kicker or even a naked backdoor draw to a flush in one of the other two suits ?

- I hope you said no. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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This is an atypical example of a semi-bluff; nevertheless it meets all the necessary criteria of any other semi-bluff.

- You may or not have the best hand but the combined chances that . . .

1. You do [have the best hand]

2. Your opponent may fold immediately (or on a later round of betting)

3. You may improve to the best hand

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To be precise, possibility #1 is a bonus. If there is any reasonable chance of getting your opponent to fold, either immediately or later in the hand, there does not need to be ANY chance of your hand being currently in front for this raise to be correct.

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I have been less than dilligent at reading responses of late (real life once again interfering with poker - sigh); PM me if you have any questions that are not answered by someone else.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time understanding why we would want to put in more bets when we are behind most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

-Depending on the number of people in the pot and the general aggressiveness of your opponents, the assumption that you are behind "most of the time" may be correct.

-Sometimes, especially in limit, protecting your hand against a possible draw outweighs the possibility of losing more bets if the pot is large.

-If the pot is very large and multiway, it can be correct to raise a bettor even if that bettor is beating you a majority of the time if that raise allows you to win the pot more often (by eliminating other players). As a general example:

The pot is 14 SB. You have a 35% chance of winning if HU with a bettor to your right, but only a 15% chance of winning if you call and let three people overcall behind you. The other three people will call if you call and fold if you raise. The bettor will always 3bet. Without taking later betting rounds into account:

Raise: You put 3 bets into the pot this round, but win 35% of the time. Preexisting pot size: 14SB, plus the three bets from both players. EV: 20SB(.35) - 3 = 4SB.

Call: You put in 1 bet, but win 15% of the time. EV: 19SB(.15) - 1 = 1.85SB.

In the above example, even though you were almost 2-to-1 to lose, knocking out the other players more than doubled your EV. These numbers were kind of pulled out of the air but this type of situation does come up once in awhile with hands like middle pair + backdoor draws, or flush draw + overcards.