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#11
11-15-2005, 05:09 AM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
Villains stats after 75 hands suggest he only will checkraise here with strong hands. 75 hands, although small, is probably sufficient enough information to allow us to make such a fold. Thats why in my first post I noted that Hero should observe what villain will checkraise and bets with in case the Poker Tracker stats are misleading.
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#12
11-15-2005, 05:46 AM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You need very good reads [/ QUOTE ] Villain is 60/9/.36 after 75. Do we need a larger sample, or lower aggression? This guy seems really passive. I can't see what he's check-raising that we beat. I don't think he's bluff check-raising 10% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] True he probably isn't bluff check-raising, but from his stats we do know that Villain is an idiot. He might think he is slow playing a pair of aces. He doesn't think he is bluffing.
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#13
11-15-2005, 05:49 AM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
[ QUOTE ]
Villains stats after 75 hands suggest he only will checkraise here with strong hands. 75 hands, although small, is probably sufficient enough information to allow us to make such a fold. Thats why in my first post I noted that Hero should observe what villain will checkraise and bets with in case the Poker Tracker stats are misleading. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure how much these stats tells us. We have only 75 hands. He's aggressive preflop and since he's playing 60% an af of 0.35 isn't awfully low (even though I agree it's low). There's no reasonable hand check/raising this river that we beat, but our opponent obviously isn't reasonable judging from the number of hands he play. I don't think the af is an appropriate way of meassuring how likely a player is to be making a strange bluff and in my experience a player with these stats are more likely to be making a weird bluff than many others. I've also seen players like this check/raising AQ/AT here. I'm most often paying off this river, but I think it's pretty close. What would be really bad though is to check this river through, since the river bet clearly has value.
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#16
11-15-2005, 06:03 PM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
[ QUOTE ]
So no one is worried about the flush here? psw [/ QUOTE ] Of course it's a concern, but you only need to be ahead ~10%. The question isn't really how often he has a flush, but how often he's capable of representing it by bluffing or raising a weaker ace.
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#17
11-15-2005, 06:27 PM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
[ QUOTE ]
If you can't call a river checkraise, why not take a free showdown? [/ QUOTE ] This is a bad way of thinking that I hear a lot from opponents in live games as high as 20/40 and 30/60. The reason we bet is because there's value here. Not betting, in fact, is HORRIBLE poker. This kind of straightforward river value-betting is one of the single-most important factors in distinguishing solid-winning from break-even type players.
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#18
11-16-2005, 12:25 AM
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Re: Bet/Fold River?
[ QUOTE ]
He's aggressive preflop and since he's playing 60% an af of 0.35 isn't awfully low [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] there are plenty of hands i could fold there but top pair top kicker against a total nut isn't one of them. [/ QUOTE ] This player is loose passive, period. A 9% pfr% doesn't suggest aggression. OP has seen him take 45 flops and has noticed nothing to increase the likelihood of a bluff check-raise here. Yes, folding will lose a pot once in a while, but you have to draw the line somewhere, or else you have a leak. What numbers are needed to fold here?
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