NLHE tournament strategy

[ironman007]

I agree with the Newbe, there is no need to gamble with 88 in this spot, since I think it's safe to assume your a coin flip at best with this hand in this position and you could be a big dog with this hand. isolating the raiser might not work if someone behind you has a big hand. I don't call this fold tight/loose I call it the wrong risk/reward at this time.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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I agree with the Newbe, there is no need to gamble with 88 in this spot, ...

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Need? What has need got to do with it? You never NEED to gamble. You do it because doing so will win more than it will lose, in net EV. This spot is clearly one having +EV in terms of chips, and I believe it also has +EV in terms of money. If something more were known about the all-in raiser, or the other players at the table, this belief might turn out to be wrong. But, on the information given, I believe raising this all-in to have significant +EV in terms of chips and cash.

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since I think it's safe to assume your a coin flip at best with this hand in this position and you could be a big dog with this hand.

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I don't think that's a safe assumption at all. I've seen people make this move with quite a few hands where 88 is more than a coin flip. Ax with x being 8 or below is the most common of these. But Kx, Qx and even worse are not necessarily out of the question. Maybe YOU wouldn't make that raise with those hands, but there are plenty who would.

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isolating the raiser might not work if someone behind you has a big hand.

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Lots of things MIGHT not work. What's relevant is not what might happen, but the probabilities of all those might-happens when put together.

Avoiding risk is generally a good thing. But not to the point where you're giving up on significant +EV opportunities. I think this is such an opportunity. Not as good as somebody raising all-in into your AA, but a significant edge, nonetheless.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[DrPhysic]

Greg,
I know this is irrelevant to you, but it was a necessary exercise for me.

I saw 88 as a not much more than 50% shot against the range of hands that the EP short stack player would have. My gut said is was maybe a +.54 or +.55 EV.

You obviously know it is a lot better, but I had to figure it out.

I took all the hands the EP would reasonably have:
Any pair, A(anything), K(anything), and suited connectors from QJs to 54s. I know he could have a lot of other hands, but I think these are the ones he probably has.

I used the TwoDimes pokenum calculator to get the +EV for 88 against all of those hands, taking a rough average for AKs-A9s, and for A8s->A2s. Same for the other combinations.
Then tabluated the values, multiplied the number of possible hands by the avg +EV for 88 for that group of hands, Summed, and divided.

Average +EV for 88 against all reasonable hands he would have is +.61, or better than a 3/2 shot.

So of course you are right. I knew you would be, I just had to figure out why.

I guess I should have seen it. 88 is essentially a push against all pairs (6 smaller, and 6 larger), and has an obvious +EV advantage over any non pair.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bozeman]

In case you are interested, the exact expectation against this range of hands is 61.47 +- .02% (using PokerCalculator).

[DrPhysic]

Bozeman,
Almost exactly the result I got, but I am sure I did it the hard way. Ran the twodimes/pokenum calculator for Ak-A9 and A8-A2, and averaged them.

You obviously have a better method. How did you do it?

Doc

[ironman007]

I guess the big assumption here is how does the UTG player play with a small stack. We are guessing since we are not at the table observing the play. You assume he is very desperate and I don't think it's desperation time yet. The range of hands that someone pushes all in with in this position is a lot narrower, a suited connector like 54 would not be one of them since the chance of getting called are high from this position. If your up agaisnt a very patient, tight player you are in trouble here.
Greg, would you call with 66 after the opening raise and the flat call?