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  #1  
Old 12-26-2005, 03:29 PM
-Skeme- -Skeme- is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: S. Korea ($100 NL)
Posts: 2,694
Default Trouble With Set.

Villain:

{{Icon: TP preflop, but Agg postflop.
Hands: 316
VP$IP: 9
PFR: 3
Agg-Factor: 2.7
W$SD: 55}}

As far as observed hands, I saw him check-minraise someone's CB with 77 on JJ7 board. That's about it. At the very least he is decent and definitely not a donk.

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($68.70)
UTG+1 ($133.70)
MP1 ($242.35)
MP2 ($197)
MP3 ($154)
CO ($205.35)
Button ($357.90)
SB ($521.05)
Hero ($309.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $6, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $8, MP2 calls $4, CO calls $4.

Flop: ($41) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($41) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $70</font>, CO folds, Button folds, Hero ??
-----

Please assign a range and the action Hero should take. Thanks.
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  #2  
Old 12-26-2005, 04:04 PM
Rotating Rabbit Rotating Rabbit is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 528
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

Looking mathematically at it, 4 players and 8 cards saw a reraised pot in full ring. I would be VERY VERY surprised if one of those 8 cards wasnt an Ace. Since Button/CO dont have an ace, and you dont, that means MP2 does. He could also have two of em. He was clearly going for a flop c/r.

So his hand range for me is:
AK/AQ with at least one big spade 50% (looking to buy a cheap showdown on blank river limit stylee)
AA- 50%
And some chance of a donkey hand.

So 3-betting turn is not a good idea, thus I call.

I check instafold a spade river, I check call a blank depending on odds given, I lead/fold to big raise a board pair, and I check raise if the board pairs aces.
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  #3  
Old 12-26-2005, 04:32 PM
Morrek Morrek is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

I would definetly proceed with alot of caution. Every single time I've had one of these hands (turned or rivered set after it's been checked in a reraised or sometimes even just raised pot that get action) I have been shown down a slowplayed topset.

With that in mind, I still think folding turn is weak... but I dunno what else there is to do here, the pot will be huge on the river if you just call, and I dislike pushing especially since the flush is out there aswell, unless you're gonna try to represent it and force a fold, which I doubt you'll pull off here.
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  #4  
Old 12-26-2005, 05:20 PM
-Skeme- -Skeme- is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: S. Korea ($100 NL)
Posts: 2,694
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

[ QUOTE ]
He could also have two of em.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he just calls PF?


[ QUOTE ]
He was clearly going for a flop c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you say this? Just because of action on flop? Is it wrong to think he could have a flush here? That's probably the only hand that doesn't want to CR or lead the flop all the time, so chances are probably small.


[ QUOTE ]
AK/AQ with at least one big spade 50% (looking to buy a cheap showdown on blank river limit stylee)
AA- 50%
And some chance of a donkey hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, that's over 100%. Would a player with AK/AQ + a spade really raise this here? What's he going to put me on? My VPIP is like 14 over 20,000 hands and I'd like to think I'm one of the better players in the game.


[ QUOTE ]
I check call a blank depending on odds given

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you think it's a tossup between AA and not AA (why aren't a flush or TT in the range, btw), what kinda bet are you folding to?
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  #5  
Old 12-26-2005, 05:53 PM
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Default Re: Trouble With Set.

I put his hand range as AK/AQ w/ one spade, TT, the flush, KK-JJ w/ one spade are possible too. Your 30 bet looks like your just trying to take down the pot when the flush card hits. (I think he puts 3 in pf w/ AA)

I dont dislike push here. Although call then c/f to a spade, bet out any board pair, and c/c a reasonable bet to anyhting else looks fine too.

I could be wrong.
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  #6  
Old 12-26-2005, 06:16 PM
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Default Re: Trouble With Set.

MP2 with a PFR of 9% he is raising Sklansky group 1-3 hands. That would put MP2 range AQ suited-AT, QQ-TT, and maybe KQ spades. AA, KK, and AK I would think he would reraise to reduce the number of hands drawing against him.

I hate laying down a set here. So I would call the turn, then check call a non-all in river bet.
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  #7  
Old 12-26-2005, 07:43 PM
SmileyEH SmileyEH is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 431
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

Your really need to stop playing full ring skeme. In the hand I'd call, push anything that pairs the board. Check fold a spade, and for the rest of the deck check and go by feel.

-SmileyEH
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  #8  
Old 12-26-2005, 10:01 PM
ryanghall ryanghall is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 121
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

It's almost certainly right to just call this bet and hope the board pairs. Fold to any real river bet if it doesn't.

Ryan
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  #9  
Old 12-26-2005, 10:10 PM
scdavis0 scdavis0 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

[ QUOTE ]
It's almost certainly right to just call this bet and hope the board pairs. Fold to any real river bet if it doesn't.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

quoted for correctness

this really isn't a difficult spot
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  #10  
Old 12-27-2005, 08:47 AM
Rotating Rabbit Rotating Rabbit is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 528
Default Re: Trouble With Set.

This is 200nl full ring, lots of players wouldnt 3bet aces when they should. And if they didnt, most would continue the slowplay then come out of nowhere later in the hand, which is exactly what it looks like.

This guy is 2.7 aggression and 3% pfr. Added to the fact that id bet the farm on him having 1+ aces just because you dont have 4 way reraised pots in full ring without an ace somewhere (so for me a set of 10s would be a huge shock, but in any case its the same as AA from our pov), a guy with 2.7 agg just doesnt make turn calls with top pair nut flush draw in position, he by default raises becuase thats what he loves to do (incorrectly against your hand range perhaps- most players dont think as much as you do!).

Re: flush, I said 50% AK/AQ with at least one spade, (ie 2 spades a quarter of the time). I.e. 50% * 25% = 13% or so nut flush. It didnt affect my actions on the river though so I didnt elaborate.

I take your point re: probabilities adding up to 100%, i was just trying to convey what i would have thought if i was playing the hand, Ida gone 'meh, half the time AK with a spade or two, half the time AA, and a little chance of some joke hand', i didnt want to be pinickity and go '45% chance AA' etc...!


i hope it worked out ok
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