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Old 12-25-2005, 10:15 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

With this week's brutal showing against Kansas City, LaDanian Tomlinson will most likely finish the year with only 5 100 yard rushing games and only 6 games with a YPC over 4, including games of 17 for 7 yards (week 7 @ PHI) and 19 for 52 yards (Week 2 @ DEN)

I don't think anyone doubts LaDanian's abilities, but let's be honest here. This is the second year in a row LaDanian's been injured and it's limited his effectiveness. People preach "give the ball to LaDanian" and "Tomlinson = win" but let's be realistic. Running backs take tons of punishment and giving the ball to one running back 400 times/year is not a great way to keep your star healthy

It's not really a knock on Tomlinson if he can't consistently stay healthy after getting the ball 375 times/year for six years; the only guys that have really been able to do that are guys like Emmitt.

For the last two years, San Diego backups Jesse Chatman and Michael Turner have rushed for 6.0 YPC while only getting about 60 touches apiece. Is it such a stretch to think that increasing the touches of Michael Turner and keeping LaDanian to around 300/year that LaDanian could stay healthy and increase his effectiveness? Sure, he might rush for a couple hundred yards less but every time Tomlinson touches the ball there's an increased chance that he takes an awkard fall or his knee gets McGahee'd, not to mention just general wear and tear.

Running backs have incredibly short careers. Those that have the fortune not to surfer career ending injuries lose their knees. Giving the ball so much to any running back is insane. Not only do you increase their chance of injury, you decrease their effectiveness.

I'm not arguing for Tomlinson to split time with Michael Turner or anything, but it really doesn't make sense to give LaDanian much more than 300 touches per year. Around that barrier, RBs start to tire out and lose their effectiveness.

For evidence, let's look at Edgerrin James. In his first 7 games (182 touches) he was only held to under 4 yards/carry once - 3.8 ypc in the opener against Baltimore.

His last 8 games (222 touches) he's averaged less than 4ypc 6 times, including the last 4 games of 3.8, 3.1, 1.9, and 3.2 ypc. He last had 4 ypc was against Pittsburgh in Week 12 - the game that put him at roughly 300 touches for the season. (Please note that his DPAR numbers, DVOA, etc have dropped as well, it's just easier to use ypc to make my case).

Running backs should be seen somewhat as starting pitchers who can come back into the game. If you could swap your starter with a reliever at anytime, you'd probably bring in the reliever to face really easy batters and save your pitcher's arm so he could face more of the tough batters. Then once he gets to around 100-120 pitches for the day, he comes out. You might keep him in longer if it's really necessary, but most coaches follow that guideline (Dusty, I'm lookin' at you).

Of course the analogy isn't perfect, but running backs get tired just like pitchers do. To expect them to touch the ball 375, 400, or in cases like Ricky Williams, 450 times a year and keep their effectiveness you're going to be disappointed. I think we can see that in the last two years of LaDanian Tomlinson.
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  #2  
Old 12-25-2005, 10:18 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

BTW, CliffNotes:

-Giving the ball to any RB 400 times a year will hurt them and tire them out
-LaDanian's touched the ball a lot every year of his career
-Tomlinson got hurt two years in a row, and both years he had talented backups only getting around 60 touches
-Edge this year saw a decline in his effectiveness at around 300 touches.
-Give the ball to the Burner more and Tomlinson will most likely stay healthier and more effective.
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Old 12-25-2005, 10:50 AM
IggyWH IggyWH is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

I agree 100%. LDT is one of the best running backs of the young generation and at this rate, he's not going to be able to walk in 2 years. You see the same thing happening with Priest and if things continue, it's only time before you see the same from Alexander.
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Old 12-25-2005, 12:10 PM
JayLear JayLear is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

I could not agree more. I love early-season LT. It's painful watching him limp through the late season like this.
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  #5  
Old 12-25-2005, 02:34 PM
UCF THAYER UCF THAYER is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

What does your subject have to do with your post?
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  #6  
Old 12-25-2005, 02:59 PM
wonderwes wonderwes is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

MVP should go like this:

1. Peyton Manning
2. Shaun A
3. LT
4. Carson Palmer
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  #7  
Old 12-25-2005, 03:18 PM
thatpfunk thatpfunk is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

i really like the analogy joa, and while i haven't thought it through completely atm, i agree with you for the most part.
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  #8  
Old 12-25-2005, 04:08 PM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

[ QUOTE ]
What does your subject have to do with your post?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was kind of a stream of consciousness thing. I was gonna make fun of everyone for all the LT hype, but I decided to talk about how he's breaking down. I said in the offseason I didn't think he'd get to 10,000 yards and while that's admittedly silly I think there's a good chance that he doesn't.
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  #9  
Old 12-26-2005, 01:35 AM
Victor Victor is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

you could make a case that he pimped so much earlier that he still is deserving.
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  #10  
Old 12-26-2005, 01:38 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: LaDanian Tomlinson for MVP

[ QUOTE ]
you could make a case that he pimped so much earlier that he still is deserving.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like that game against New York and that game against Washington and that game against New England... and what else was there?

I have a hard time giving the MVP to ANYONE who turns in a 7 yards on 17 carries performance.
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