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Old 12-09-2005, 04:42 PM
Tenacious A Tenacious A is offline
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Default Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Played a SNG earlier today where I almost blew (well, I guess I did blow, but came back to win) a chip lead of 13,200 to 300. I don't have any problem figuring out the odds that I really suck at poker, but could someone please show me how to do the math on this....

After taking the commanding lead we played 5 hands all in preflop...he was favored everytime...65%, 51%, 57%, 65% and 55%. What are the odds that all 5 times his hand would hold up? Thanks.

Forgot to add...there where two hands after the ones above where I was favored...and lost...I was a 68% and 59% favorite.
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Old 12-09-2005, 05:42 PM
MCS MCS is offline
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Default Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Each hand is independent. Just multiply the probabilities.

(.65)*(.51)*(.57)*(.65)*(.55)
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Old 12-09-2005, 08:28 PM
Buccaneer Buccaneer is offline
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Default Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Are you saying he beat you 7 times in a row, doubling up each time? If so you ran out of chips.
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Old 12-11-2005, 01:07 AM
Tenacious A Tenacious A is offline
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Default Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

I didn't lose 7 hands in a row...but I lost 7 consecutive showdowns. I won a lot of small pots as my opponent was only playing quality hands and often folded to a preflop raise or a post flop bet.

Thanks to MCS for the math help.
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  #5  
Old 12-11-2005, 02:27 AM
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Default Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

I had an S&G like that. I actually lost.

I remember afterwards just sitting there in stunned disbelief.

Let me guess. After the 4th showdown you were saying "You gotta be f&&king kidding me!!"
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