Two Plus Two Older Archives Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row
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#1
12-09-2005, 04:42 PM
 Tenacious A Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 35
Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Played a SNG earlier today where I almost blew (well, I guess I did blow, but came back to win) a chip lead of 13,200 to 300. I don't have any problem figuring out the odds that I really suck at poker, but could someone please show me how to do the math on this....

After taking the commanding lead we played 5 hands all in preflop...he was favored everytime...65%, 51%, 57%, 65% and 55%. What are the odds that all 5 times his hand would hold up? Thanks.

Forgot to add...there where two hands after the ones above where I was favored...and lost...I was a 68% and 59% favorite.
#2
12-09-2005, 05:42 PM
 MCS Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 143
Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Each hand is independent. Just multiply the probabilities.

(.65)*(.51)*(.57)*(.65)*(.55)
#3
12-09-2005, 08:28 PM
 Buccaneer Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 95
Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

Are you saying he beat you 7 times in a row, doubling up each time? If so you ran out of chips.
#4
12-11-2005, 01:07 AM
 Tenacious A Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 35
Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

I didn't lose 7 hands in a row...but I lost 7 consecutive showdowns. I won a lot of small pots as my opponent was only playing quality hands and often folded to a preflop raise or a post flop bet.

Thanks to MCS for the math help.
#5
12-11-2005, 02:27 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Winning 5 relative coin flips in a row

I had an S&amp;G like that. I actually lost.

I remember afterwards just sitting there in stunned disbelief.

Let me guess. After the 4th showdown you were saying "You gotta be f&amp;&amp;king kidding me!!"

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