Raise/fold river top 2 pair

[Pharity]

I've only got a small sample on villain. 9/2/1 after 57 hands, this should mean very little.

Good or bad line? Please comment!

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Call the raise perhaps, anyone?

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Um, I might be pissy since I got my ass handed to me this AM. However...

Your line plays like you're convinced you're ahead, and I don't think you should be so convinced...

You should have raised the flop to try to keep control of the hand there. If he re-raises you, you should suspect you're behind. You don't know where you are after that point.

Turn card is worst possible for us. When the second K comes and villain leads into you, he's telling you he thinks you don't have a K (and he was right) and that he can beat AK. However, since you didn't raise him on the flop, you don't really know where to gauge his hand. You are now stuck really stuck. Given how the hand played out, you should have raised him and folded to a re-raise. You probably could have shown down for free and/or reacted to the river card from there.

To me, your river raise is spewing. There are plenty of hands you lose to, and not many you beat, and he clearly wasn't going to fold to your raise, so there was no fold equity in the raise.

[Pharity]

When he bets into me on the flop, im not worried about my hand. His bet could mean anything. He could have a worse ace (likely) or a pocket pair or something completely else. Many players love to bet out with these types of hands against a PFR hoping to fold a pocket pair below kings. If he really had a good hand he is more likely to checkraise. That he would have a king is not as likely though IMO.

When the board pairs up at the turn im WA/WB. Ive got two pairs and not much to worry about if he doesn't have a king. A raise here won't do me much good since im often folding lesser hands and have to fold to a 3-bet.

When i raise the river though, the chances he will pay me off with something like Ax goes up and i think its quite safe fold to the 3-bet. If he were a lunatic he would not have played those 57 last hands that timidly.

IMO im more than a 50% favorite on the river, allowing me to raise if i can safely fold to a reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
Um, I might be pissy since I got my ass handed to me this AM. However...

Your line plays like you're convinced you're ahead, and I don't think you should be so convinced...

You should have raised the flop to try to keep control of the hand there. If he re-raises you, you should suspect you're behind. You don't know where you are after that point.

Turn card is worst possible for us. When the second K comes and villain leads into you, he's telling you he thinks you don't have a K (and he was right) and that he can beat AK. However, since you didn't raise him on the flop, you don't really know where to gauge his hand. You are now stuck really stuck. Given how the hand played out, you should have raised him and folded to a re-raise. You probably could have shown down for free and/or reacted to the river card from there.

To me, your river raise is spewing. There are plenty of hands you lose to, and not many you beat, and he clearly wasn't going to fold to your raise, so there was no fold equity in the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can beat AK? So he has AA? Raise the flop, get three bet by a worse ace and cap. I would just call his river raise.

[Pharity]

But the pot is small and there is a lot of hands i don't want him to fold, like Ax and PP. Actually there is no worse hand i would like him to fold because of the small pot. And there is a great chance he is on some kind of a bluff at this point, so i would like to give him the chance to fire again on the turn.

If the pot were bigger i would just raise the flop. Play it straight forward.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I've only got a small sample on villain. 9/2/1 after 57 hands, this should mean very little.

Good or bad line? Please comment!

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Call the raise perhaps, anyone?

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

His river 3 bet might mean he's too stupid to know A2 and A7 aren't the best hand.

I like this whole hand, except call the river.

What is he calling a preflop raise with, and then betting into you? KJ? KT?

The only hand I'm worried he might have is 77.

i like it. villain with that type of agression will rarely be messing around on that river. The raise, in my opinion, is not for fold equity but for value. Well played

[W. Deranged]

The problem with this sort of "raise the river" line is:

1. Sometimes you miss bet if villain will got to multiple bets on the flop or later with an inferior hand.

2. You're in a tough spot if you get three-bet and don't have a very solid read on the river.

3. The character of the turn and river cards might slow down your opponent and kill your action.

4. You definitely hurt yourself if villain checks at any point and only one bet ends up going in on every street.

5. An observant opponent with a hand like AT might find a river fold and in that case you'd probably have been better off just raising early and forcing him to call down a bet on every street.

The general reasons to do this are:

1. You encourage villain to bet an inferior hand.

2. You don't give villain all that easy a place to fold until the river.

3. You do slightly better over just raising the flop when you get in 3.5 BB instead of 3 BB (as raising the flop often does).

In general, against most opponents, the way you'll generate the most average action is basically just to raise the flop and bet all the way down. You'll get called down by a worse A like every time. If villain is just donking with a K "trying to find where he's at" or something like that, if you call the flop and the turn that'll often be plenty scary to slow down villain anyway.

So I like a plain old flop raise.


As for the river, it's really read dependent. I'd want to have some sense of how villain played before I made this play. In general, if you are confident enough that villain will bet every stree to take this line, I'd probably think the guy's pretty aggressive and so I'd be inclined to call the river three-bet.