Take my 5 out draw... or bet

flair1239 · #1 11-04-2005, 11:29 AM

Mp1 is tightish and slightly passive 19/5/1.5. Fold to flop bet is 45%, fold to turn bet is 20%. WSD 31 W$SD 54

PF: MP1 limps, I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from the button, blinds fold.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, He calls

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I....and why?

droolie · #2 11-04-2005, 11:43 AM

I bet this and fold to a C/R. I'm not that scared of a bluff C/R here and the pots not that big that chasing 5 outs is worthwhile.

This board is somewhat troubling but I think there's a very good chance we're ahead. We're obviously very vulnerable and we'd like to end this right here.

I bet because he might fold a live draw and I will gladly take a free showdown if he calls. He could be hanging around with some weird draw and we have a value bet here. He might have a pair that beats us and we would really like him to fold.

If we check we will certainly face a river bet which we will be compelled to call unless we improve. This obviously give us O% chance of getting him to fold a better hand. When our hand is not so strong we really don't want him to be bluffing at us a lot on the river. I usually err on the side of firing on the turn when in position and HU when the other guy has just called our bets. I think we win more when we are ahead and lose less when we are behind this way too. If he calls we usually get a free showdown or can bet again if we improve.

sean c · #3 11-04-2005, 11:47 AM

Hi Flair unless i was planning on folding to a river bet unimproved i would bet the turn. The board is pretty drawless so his flop call sucks but if i am putting another bet in it will be on the turn.

ErrantNight · #4 11-04-2005, 12:09 PM

bet.

because you might have the best hand.

because he's passive and you can fold to a raise in this small pot.

because you really don't want to give a free card to a hand with 6 outs against you.

because if he calls and another overcard comes on the river you can probably show down for free.

edited to add: because that flop was so ugly villain could be continuing with literally any 2 cards, presuming it missed you.

W. Deranged · #5 11-04-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet.

because you might have the best hand.

because he's passive and you can fold to a raise in this small pot.

because you really don't want to give a free card to a hand with 6 outs against you.

because if he calls and another overcard comes on the river you can probably show down for free.

edited to add: because that flop was so ugly villain could be continuing with literally any 2 cards, presuming it missed you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wholeheartedly agreed. I have nothing to add of any substance.

molawn2mo · #6 11-04-2005, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet.

because you might have the best hand.

because he's passive and you can fold to a raise in this small pot.

because you really don't want to give a free card to a hand with 6 outs against you.

because if he calls and another overcard comes on the river you can probably show down for free.

edited to add: because that flop was so ugly villain could be continuing with literally any 2 cards, presuming it missed you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wholeheartedly agreed. I have nothing to add of any substance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without access to my pt database, I would have to think that OP's stat of villain's 45% fold to flop is indicative of a pretty narrow fit or fold type. As such, since villain did not fold the flop then there is a strong inerence that he hit the flop and, if so, we may be better off taking the free card unless villain is "weak" and will pitch 2 nd pair.

Yes, this is a weak, weak play by hero but, IF the 45% fold to flop is a significant indication that villain hit the flop then, in that event, I think we take the free card and fold the river UI. How weak is that?

W. Deranged · #7 11-04-2005, 01:17 PM

You make a very good point, Mo.

I think another thing we should consider is that this type of villain is probably not playing many hands that include 7s or 5s in them. If he has a pair on the flop, it's probably a J or a pocket pair (I think the pocket pairs are quite likely here). With that in mind, the Q coming could be a good card to bet on because villain might decide now that his 66 or 88 is no longer good.

Along those lines, since villain's range likely includes a fair number of pocket pairs, I think there's a not-insignificant portion of the time we have a value bet here against 22-44.

flair1239 · #8 11-04-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Along those lines, since villain's range likely includes a fair number of pocket pairs, I think there's a not-insignificant portion of the time we have a value bet here against 22-44.

[/ QUOTE ]

Deranged,

I think the only way I get another bet out of 22-44 is by checking the turn and betting the river.

Look at the guy's WSD/W$SD%... I doubt he is calling down with 22-44 often after the queen hits.

That said 66-88 which I think would definetly be in his range... he may have a hard time caliing. But I think his range also includes many hands like JTs, QJs, KQs or KQo... hands like that. The board is failry drawless and there is a higher than normal (have not figured percentages yet) that I am behind.

If he has an A he is reverse dominated... so that makes freecards a little less dangerous.

flair1239 · #9 11-04-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet.

because you might have the best hand.

because he's passive and you can fold to a raise in this small pot.

because you really don't want to give a free card to a hand with 6 outs against you.

because if he calls and another overcard comes on the river you can probably show down for free.

edited to add: because that flop was so ugly villain could be continuing with literally any 2 cards, presuming it missed you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wholeheartedly agreed. I have nothing to add of any substance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without access to my pt database, I would have to think that OP's stat of villain's 45% fold to flop is indicative of a pretty narrow fit or fold type. As such, since villain did not fold the flop then there is a strong inerence that he hit the flop and, if so, we may be better off taking the free card unless villain is "weak" and will pitch 2 nd pair.

Yes, this is a weak, weak play by hero but, IF the 45% fold to flop is a significant indication that villain hit the flop then, in that event, I think we take the free card and fold the river UI. How weak is that?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thought exactly.

I am not sure that my fold equity alone is enough to bet. I also think with the information I have on the player (which I included in my post), that he is likely to be holding a better hand at this point. If I got checkraised and folded I would be giving up my +EV of checking my 5-outer and still having a chance to showdown.

Against most playeyer I do bet, for reasons others in this thread have mentioned. But the reason I posted this hand, is because I think I bet the turn too much. I think it is a leak of mine. I have been working on recognising proper checking situations... and I think this might be a siutation where checking is better than betting. Or if they are very close, checking carries less variance (how is that for weak thinking [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img], to me limiting variance has some value).

I am working on a turn situation spread sheet. I have been suprised by some of the things I have found out, running math on various situations.

flair1239 · #10 11-04-2005, 02:03 PM

If I am doing this right..

Assume he has a better hand (which we can't assume 100%), I think a fair percentage of the time I am ahead here (which might push betting to the best option... but lets assume I am behind)

Checking a 5 outer in a 3.5BB pot: .38 BB/hand

Betting and getting called: -.4 BB/hand

Betting with a 25% chance of him folding: .32 BB/hand