Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise

MP1 is and unknown who just sat down 3 hands ago and posted from the CO position. He has shown done twice with decent hands that he chased and lost with and folded once pf. MP3 is not much better in terms of reads, but is 13/10/2.5 over about 30 hands no showdowns that I remember -- no notes.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ?

I want to bet here, but should I? If I bet then MP3 could raise or I could lose MP1 all of which (I think) are -EV I have the one overcard though. If I check then MP3 will probably continue and I can decide to check/raise (or not)but what if he doesn't. Is possible I could get two folds here?

I want to bet here. Should I?

[Jaran]

With only 2 other people in the pot, you are pretty much neutral ev whichever way you play it, except for the c/r line. The c/r line is gonna be -ev, unless you are sure that MP1 would call 2 cold. Personally I would bet/call.

-Jaran

Why do you want to bet here?

Fold this preflop: you shouldn't be playing weak suited aces from this position.

You can either bet-call, or check-call on the flop. Check raising is out of the question: you'll have MP1 facing two bets, likely chasing him out, which you don't want to do. Bet-call is the best way to get money from both MP1 and MP3 into the pot.

grunchin...

I would probably fold that hand pre-flop unless it was a LPP type of table.

check/call the flop. you have no position here.

[Jaran]

Both c/c and bet/call are neutral ev if MP1 calls. I like the bet/call line better because I think he calls my bet more often. Also, if MP3 is a bit on the weak side (no read given to this, but there's a chance), it lets me take control of the hand, and sets up a lovely c/r on the turn/river if we hit. But the c/c line is fine also. C/R sucks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

-Jaran

[ QUOTE ]
Both c/c and bet/call are neutral ev if MP1 calls. I like the bet/call line better because I think he calls my bet more often. Also, if MP3 is a bit on the weak side (no read given to this, but there's a chance), it lets me take control of the hand, and sets up a lovely c/r on the turn/river if we hit. But the c/c line is fine also. C/R sucks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. I'm not sure a TAG would fall for a c/r when the flush comes in though.

[Songwind]

I don't think it much matters except that you do not want to check/raise. Your pot equity is about 35% and you'd be contributing 33% of the funds to the pot, so betting is marginaly +EV

[littlebu]

*grunch*

I would fold preflop. Given we're here though I would bet out and call a raise. My thinking for betting out is if you do hit your flush on the turn your flop bet helps "disguise" it. By leading the flop when a heart hits you could go for a check raise. By checking after the third heart hit it would make it look like you where on Kx and are now worried about the flush. My line could be way off though

[no1super2001]

The best move is to muck this hand pre-flop.

Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player. They may prove me wrong from time to time, but it has served me. So I figure MP1 for a LP for this hand. MP3 may just be buying the button with the pf raise.

Once you take the flop, I think you bet and call flop and turn, check/folding UI on the river. Poker Stove shows equity at 46% against random and "All Broadway" hands and 53% against 2 random hands. So I do not worry about losing MP1 to a bet on the flop.