Overdoing it?

shant · #1 11-14-2005, 03:06 AM

BB is 36/17/2 over thousands of hands. He makes some aggressive plays but I've also seen him make some pretty terrible call-downs. MP3 is 43/8/1, typical loose passive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: I am CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, I raise, 2 folds, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 folds, I raise, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, I raise, BB 3-bets, I fold.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

istewart · #2 11-14-2005, 03:32 AM

Not sure I like the turn raise but I think you probably should call the turn getting 10:1.

Hand 1: 10.3936 % 09.31% 01.08% { Th9h }
Hand 2: 89.6064 % 88.53% 01.08% { 88, 44, QcJc, QcTc, Q9s-Q8s, JTs, 98s, Q9o-Q8o, JTo, 98o }

I think that's a decent range no?

private joker · #3 11-14-2005, 03:38 AM

I'd fold to the first turn bet. You raised PF, you raised his flop bet, and now he's betting out again. He doesn't seem to be worried about the strength you represent. You say he makes aggressive plays, but how aggressive? It sure seems like a pair of 9s isn't good here. You have a gutshot, but not the odds to call for it getting 6.25:1.

#4 11-14-2005, 03:46 AM

PREFLOP: I like a call here much better than a raise. The time to consider this raise is when you are against a player who folds a lot postflop and the button and the blinds are tight. You decided to isolate a calling station with ten high, with a loose player in the BB, this is not smart poker. FLOP: It is debatable between calling and raising, a reason to raise would be becuz you likely have the best hand so get more money in the pot, a reason to just call is becuz on this board there is a higher than normal chance the BB is on a draw which means waiting for a turn blank to raise charges his draw for a full price. TURN: If youre gonna fold to a reraise Then I see no point in raising, it is much better to invest 2BB and actually see if you won or not than to raise and fold. You have a pair and a gutshot draw, which is more than enough to call the turn, and on the river you have an easy call since there are still some hands you can beat and the pot odds will make the call profitable. When you raise the turn with the intention of folding to a raise youre just asking to get outplayed, by calling down no one can ever out play you off the best hand(there is a lot of value in this concept) Also, when you raise folded, you also made a pot odds mistake, given the action and your pair gutshot draw, you have an estimated 4 pure outs, getting 10.25-1, you should call since including implied odds this call should be profitable.

shant · #5 11-14-2005, 03:54 AM

Wesley, I understand your preflop arguement, but when I said he was loose-passive, that didn't mean he called down without some sort of hand. If he misses the flop there's a good chance I win with a bet on the flop, and if not I most likely see a free river.

Your arguement for calling down neglects the fact that I only have a pair of 9's, and calling does nothing to protect my hand if I am ahead. I'd prefer folding to calling per joker's advice.

mikeyvegas · #6 11-14-2005, 04:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BB is 36/17/2 over thousands of hands. He makes some aggressive plays but I've also seen him make some pretty terrible call-downs. MP3 is 43/8/1, typical loose passive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: I am CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, I raise, 2 folds, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 folds, I raise, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, I raise, BB 3-bets, I fold.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

You're that sure he has J-10 on the turn getting 10:1?

*Edit: I guess I'm not the first to brind this up. And as you and joker have said, I would prefer to fold to the initial turn bet.

#7 11-14-2005, 04:04 AM

I do not like the preflop raise. "I've also seen him make some pretty terrible call-downs" means you need the best hand to beat him. 109s is great at hitting big flops rarely, and medium flops semi often, and crap often. Limp behind, take a look.

How you played it I like the flop raise. You are likely to have the best hand and you have a BDSD.

On the turn, when he donks, I think you are still pretty likely to have the best hand. The raise is not bad, although it is one I would not make. If he is bluffing, I want him to continue to do so. MP3 folded, so there are no additional considerations in respect to other players.

You clearly have enough of a hand to see the river against his donk bet. While this is occasionaly 2 pair with the 8, or J10, it is also often A8, 93, K4 as well as a hand that picked up a gutshot like 810.

Calling and raising the turn are both fine, but raising and folding to a three bet, given your gutshot and the fact that your 9 outs (as in to trips) are good about 90% of the time here means you should call the turn.

I think "raise or fold" situations are not nearly as common as most people believe in the complex world of lagtastic online poker.

shant · #8 11-14-2005, 04:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're that sure he has J-10 on the turn getting 10:1?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, but with this action I doubt T's or 9's are clean outs.

#9 11-14-2005, 04:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Wesley, I understand your preflop arguement, but when I said he was loose-passive, that didn't mean he called down without some sort of hand. If he misses the flop there's a good chance I win with a bet on the flop, and if not I most likely see a free river.

Your arguement for calling down neglects the fact that I only have a pair of 9's, and calling does nothing to protect my hand if I am ahead. I'd prefer folding to calling per joker's advice.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given the action postflop, there is a high likelihood that you dont have the best hand already, therefore you dont need to think about raising the turn to protect your hand, and given that you have a pair and a gutshot you have more than enough pot odds to call this turn, especially when you consider the fact that you will still probably have the best hand here 5-10% of the time when your opponent is on some weird bluff. About preflop: Even against the perfect oppponent, the raise is still wrong becuz of the loose BB who is very likely to ruin your isolation play.

pyedog · #10 11-14-2005, 04:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold to the first turn bet. You raised PF, you raised his flop bet, and now he's betting out again. He doesn't seem to be worried about the strength you represent. You say he makes aggressive plays, but how aggressive? It sure seems like a pair of 9s isn't good here. You have a gutshot, but not the odds to call for it getting 6.25:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious how many outs you would estimate we have when this aggressive player first bets out on the turn.

At most we have 4 outs to the gutshot and 5 more outs to two pair or three of a kind (another ten puts four to a straight on board though). There's a chance that he has a ten as well in which case we're drawing to a split for the gutshot. But I don't think there is any real evidence to suspect him having a ten when he donkbets the turn.

I always find it tough to put aggressive players on a hand. But in this case I would estimate 3 outs for the gutshot and 3 more for two pair or better. And with the extra bet on the river you are getting 7:1 in implied odds.

So I think the decision to call on his first turn bet is close, even if we're assuming that we're behind. I'm surprised Hero folded after the three bet getting 10:1 though. I think I call down too much against LAG players like this hoping he's overplaying his hand.