Okay, WTF is going on?????

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF is going on with Party Poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing. You suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jba]

is this post a joke? i don't get it.

[MicroBob]

it's also not uncommon to get feelings of cockyness and invinceability (spelling??...I suck) after a decent stretch of winning (or even a short run).

After the cockyness sets in you might be making less than ideal plays....trying to push your players off hands when they're NOT going to be folding...and using warped reasoning to call-down with borderline garbage.

Frequently, people who do this will THINK they are still playing just as strongly as they were when they were winning...and don't fully realize how many leaks have developed in their game.


I've battled with this form of tilt over and over and over....my current stretch if my worst by far though.




In short: If you see bad players with 60/10 stats in your games then it's probably not the game, it's YOU (or, at least, it's ME).


However, it is also worth noting that if you had a computer simulation for a consistent 1.5BB/100 player it wouldn't be that unusual at all for consecutive graphs such as yours to develop for such a relatively short-term period of hands.

in other words - how much you win after 50k hands can still be pretty far off your true win rate so don't read too much into the results there.

This shouldn't stop you though from fully discounting the possibility that your game might have gone backwards just a little bit. It's possible anyway.




But my voice on this seems to be in the minority...perhaps I'm just not as fondly remembering the super-maniacs who try to bluff-cap me on every street with unimproved-undercards.
I know the pots were bigger back in the day and the play was perhaps a bit looser...but I see 60/10 donks all over the place so I know the games arent THAT impossible to beat.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
it's also not uncommon to get feelings of cockyness and invinceability (spelling??...I suck) after a decent stretch of winning (or even a short run).

After the cockyness sets in you might be making less than ideal plays....trying to push your players off hands when they're NOT going to be folding...and using warped reasoning to call-down with borderline garbage.

Frequently, people who do this will THINK they are still playing just as strongly as they were when they were winning...and don't fully realize how many leaks have developed in their game.


I've battled with this form of tilt over and over and over....my current stretch if my worst by far though.




In short: If you see bad players with 60/10 stats in your games then it's probably not the game, it's YOU (or, at least, it's ME).


However, it is also worth noting that if you had a computer simulation for a consistent 1.5BB/100 player it wouldn't be that unusual at all for consecutive graphs such as yours to develop for such a relatively short-term period of hands.

in other words - how much you win after 50k hands can still be pretty far off your true win rate so don't read too much into the results there.

This shouldn't stop you though from fully discounting the possibility that your game might have gone backwards just a little bit. It's possible anyway.




But my voice on this seems to be in the minority...perhaps I'm just not as fondly remembering the super-maniacs who try to bluff-cap me on every street with unimproved-undercards.
I know the pots were bigger back in the day and the play was perhaps a bit looser...but I see 60/10 donks all over the place so I know the games arent THAT impossible to beat.

[/ QUOTE ]


Your thoughts are echoing those that have been rattling around in my own mind.



Adam

[Petomane]

You know, that's poker - you were overdue for an adjustment.

Oddly enough, I find Party to be a lot fishier since the split, many more bad players and November was the worst month for me. It was suckout time. The variance is going to be greater, I suppose.
I don't know about your limits, but having vastly different results over the next 50,000 hands is normal.

[Victor]

this is normal and many players far better than you have experienced far worse streaks. have you been paying any attention?

[MicroBob]

well...losing minds think alike I suppose (???).


I only wish I was at break-even in my 2nd stretch.
My latest downswing nightmare continued for another 20BB's in another 1000+ hands tonight.
Obviously 20BB's is not very noteworthy...but when you string together as many minus 20-40 BB days I have they tend to add up kinda fast.

The variance 'excuse' is a dangerous one.

If you're losing because you suck you can still go a LONG time just complaining about how you've been getting bad cards and the variance has really been burning you lately....and it won't really look that different from a winning player who is just going through an extended streak.

Many poker-players live in denial ("I could be a huge winner if I only had the bankroll"...stuff like that).
It's very difficult to self-assess one's play.

How many poker players really think they play badly?
If they thought their play was bad they wouldn't be playing that way in the first place.
Therefore, almost everyone THINKS that the way they are playing is pretty much the way the game SHOULD be played. This includes many losing players (including all those annoying table-whiners and cussers in the chat-box).

Because of this it's pretty difficult to tell when one actually does have mistakes.
As I said before...if you knew they were mistakes you wouldn't have played that way to begin with.



I think the thread by Guthrie where he's doing some self-reflecting and is being directed to some of the leaks in his game that he really wasn't THAT aware of is a good example.


But again...it's entirely possible you are playing very solid poker and are getting kind of burned by the cards.
But if you're that good a player you should be fairly certain that you weren't missing opportunities to win or save extra bets on specific hands you played (you would KNOW if you were getting unlucky imo).

[Python49]

45k+ hands of break even/losing for the past 2 months now... I thought I was alone

[Subfallen]

someday everybody will understand that 50k hands is nothing nothing NOTHING

[pipster]

It is interesting... before the split I was winning at a respectable rate and a friend was learning the game and telling me how $0.50/1.00 was impossible to beat because of all the idiots. So I dropped down one weekend to work with her on her game (and hopefully get laid) and played $0.50/1.00 with her watching and got royally creamed. I had to readjust to the idiot factor and once I did I was just fine and winning again at $0.50/1.00.

Now I am noticing that the chasing and fishiness of the 3/6 tables have dramatically increased and I am having to make the same adjustments (check/raise bluffs and continuation bets are no longer as valuable as they once were) and am having a really hard time finding the right aggression factor for these games.
(as is evidenced by my 150 BB downswing in the month of November)
[ QUOTE ]
45k+ hands of break even/losing for the past 2 months now... I thought I was alone

[/ QUOTE ]