wizards/clippers tonight

[ElSapo]

Sorry for the late response to this, but...

...mayeb I'm still not clear on this idea. Why does the bet have more value because the line moved?

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look at it from a pure marketplace perspective. he 'bought' the under at 188 and its now selling at 182, giving him a boatload of value.

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Why does the bet have more value? He still has the same bet -- u188, albeit the line moved. But I guess what I don't see is how the line move affects him.

Semi-hypothetical: I'm in a pool where we pick against the spread. The lines go up on Monday and do not move througout the week. By your statement, I would be best off waiting until Sunday morning and comparing actual lines to the pool lines, and betting where I saw the most value?

I guess what I mean is, the bet is still the bet, and our man made his bet based on his belief at the time. Just because it appears many people agree with him, books included, does not seem to add value inherently.

The six-point o/u move is a big one though, I'll give you that.

Am I way off here?

[sublime]

Why does the bet have more value? He still has the same bet -- u188, albeit the line moved. But I guess what I don't see is how the line move affects him.

Let me try it this way. Instead of moving POINTS, lets move money and keep the spread the same. I dont know what a half point is worth in the NBA in regards to totals, but I will guess 5 cents. So, our guy bought:

under 188 -110

the market is selling the same product now at:

under 188 -170

basically telling this guy that he made a wise investment in this particular game. the bets he has in that the line either didnt move, or moved against him are not as strong, or it some cases have negative value.

its the same as the stock market. if this doesnt make sense, its because i am not good at explaining it or something. maybe somebody else can give a better example.

[sublime]

Semi-hypothetical: I'm in a pool where we pick against the spread. The lines go up on Monday and do not move througout the week. By your statement, I would be best off waiting until Sunday morning and comparing actual lines to the pool lines, and betting where I saw the most value?

Yes

[ElSapo]

No, I think I understand what you mean now, thanks for explaining it again... I think the "wise investment" reference helped.

[sublime]

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No, I think I understand what you mean now, thanks for explaining it again... I think the "wise investment" reference helped.

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cool. i have a hard time explaining how i think in general. probably because i am warped.

[sublime]

SSB thread

Sapo-

Thsi thread from a long while back on SSB should be more helpfull. Even if its not, it has some great stuff in it, especially from Dreamer.