I need to start doing this more

[me454555]

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With your position on the field as it is, betting the flop in a 3-way pot that went three bets preflop vs. raising the expected bet from the LAG in a 3-way pot that went 2 bets preflop will result in the exact same pot size and pot odds offered to your opponents.

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The difference between raising pf lags flop bet vs 3 betting pf is that when I raise pf lags flop bet, it will be b/c I hit the flop and have a decent equity. Even though the pot will have the same amount of bets if I raise the flop vs 3 betting pf, my equity will have significantly improved.

I think calling the turn w/AQ or AJ is prefectly reasonable for this player b/c 1) he's got the gutter, 2) Hes got an A out which is likely to be good if he hits it and 3) theres a chance he's got the best hand at the moment and I check behind on the river and he wins UI.

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By your own reasoning, you are losing an extra bet more often than you win one. And I don't think that he's betting those underpairs on the turn very often at all, especially if he chose not to bet with one on the T-high, rainbow flop. The K represents another overcard and he's got another player (you) yet to act behind him--a lot of players will just check again with a hand like 44, and of those who then call a bet there, many will call another on the river.

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I think you're missing the point of the river bet. While its true that I will get called prolly 60% of the time or so, I dont need to win the potmore than 50% of the time I get called. I just need to make him fold the best hand 2 out of every 13 times I bet. If we assume that he always folds A high but never folds a pair, my bet is pretty clearly +EV b/c I will lose 1 BB 36 times and win 5.5 sbs 28.5 times. The question is really, after we throw out the busted draws that I beat and won't call, do AJ/AQ make up more than or less than 15% of his hands on the river? I think the answer to this question is yes